MINUTES TO POST!…ROAD TO BREEDERS’ CUP 2019!
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Jerry & Suzee Bailey
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Jerry Bailey, and his wife Suzee,
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BREEDERS’ CUP 2019!
The 36th running of the Breeders’ Cup 2019
will be returning to Santa Anita Park in California on Nov. 1-2.
The 14 Breeders’ Cup races attract the best Thoroughbreds in the world
to compete for more than $30 million in purse money and awards.
The selection of starters in each race is determined in part by a points system
for graded stakes and the selection criteria of a panel of experts.
However, there is one way for an owner to bypass the secondary criteria
and secure a spot for their horse in a Breeders’ Cup race,
and that is by winning a stakes race in the Breeders’ Cup Challenge Series.
This Challenge Series consists of the best races from around the world
and awards each winner an automatic and free entry
into the Breeders’ Cup World Championships.
It’s simple, you win and you’re in!
Jerry’s Breeders’ Cup Favorites!
Suzee’s Favorites Soon to be Posted 😉!
FRIDAY
Jerry’s Picks!
Breeder’s Cup Juv Turf Sprint 2019
Wesley Ward is coming in here with three runners and all of them have a chance and two are fillies. Topping his list is Kimari who is only a head away from being undefeated in four starts and that defeat was at Ascot in June. She showed how versatile she was in her last start winning the Indian Summer stakes from last,.. while all of her other races have been up on the lead.
Four Wheel Drive, a son of American Pharoah is equally as talented wining both his starts impressively. He breaks like a shot but will settle just behind the pace if it’s crazy fast and won impressively in both starts.
The filly Cambria is the third of his horses and although small she is mighty, winning all three of her starts(first tow on PID synthetic) and overcoming trouble in her latest win at Kentucky Downs. She comes from mid pack.
On the Euro side A’Ali may be the strongest threat with three wins and a second in five starts, he has shown he can win up close to the pace or from well back early. His most impressive performance to me was his win in the grade two Prix Robert Papin in France at Deauville coming from 5 or 6 off the pace to win going away.
Chimney Rock has been solid in her last three races but hasn’t been able to beat Wesley Wards’ horses Kimari and Cambria.
1.Four Wheel Drive
2. Kimari
3.A’Ali..
Suzee’s top 3
1-Kimari
2-A’Ali
3-Cambria-Little-but Mighty😉
Jerry’s Picks!
Breeder’s Cup Juv Turf 2019
Since the Euro’s have an 8-4 win advantage in this race let’s start with them.. and specifically Arizona who seems to be getting better with each race. He’s been , 4th, 3rd, and 2nd in his last three starts but those were against Earthlight( undefeated in 5 racess and best in France), and Pinatubo( best in Europe by far) in his last two races and closer to Pinatubo in the Gr1 Dewhurst last out. Tactically he breaks well and either leads or stalks in Europe but that puts him in the second flight which is fine. Stable mates Fort Myers seems a cut below him but the latter a grade two winner past out even though it was a weak gr 2.
Of the US based runners I fell Decorated Invader is our best but not by much. With a little luck he would be undefeated(7 wide in maiden race beaten ¾) but winner of his last two including the Gr 1 Summer Stakes at Woodbine winning with a lot left in the tank. That day he beat Vitology who had a bit of trouble but as easy as Decorated Invader won, he wasn’t going to beat him even with a trouble free trip. Subsequently he ran second in the Bourbon at Keeland, and from post 13 he had and extremely wide trip and was best on that day. Because he comes from basically last, he will always be subject to racing luck(wide trips and traffic).
The other major players are Stuctor and Andesite , the one two finishers in the Poilgrim stakes. Structor had a trouble free three wide trip while Andecite sat the pocket on the rail waiting for running room and once he got it at the 3/16 pole he lugged in so bad he really didn’t take full advantage and consequently finished second.
Piece Achieved is three for three since adding blinkers and stretching out to a distance of ground and will likely be up on the pace as he was winning the Bourbon stakes at Keeland, but he will have company up front in the form of Gracefull Kitten who used his speed to wire the field in all three of his races including last two stakes(neither graded) at Gulfstream Park.
Last but not least is Hit the Road who won the Zuma Beach with a devastating turn move at Santa Anita in his last race. I don’t think he beat a great group but he was impressive.
1-Arizona
2-Decorated Invader
3-Vitalogy
4-Hit the Road
Suzee’s Top 3
1-Arizona
2-Decorated Invader
3-Vitalogy
Jerry’s Picks!
Breeder’s Cup Juv Fillies 2019
Donna Veloche seems to be the talk of the track in this very deep edition of the two year old filly division. This filly by Uncle Mo has only run once but was ultra- impressive breaking her maiden by over 9 lengths with plenty in reserve. Now she does obviously step up in class and it’s a big jump from 6 furlongs to a mile and a sixteenth but she’s the one to beat ad the best of the California group.
Wicked Whisper, by BC Dirt Mile winner Liam’s Map is one of two east coast fillies to watch for. She broke her maiden at Saratoga with ease and won the Frizette in the same manner and has run faster that all except Donna Veloche. She’s been on the lead in both starts.
The other east coast invaded is Alcibiades winner British Idiom who is also two for two and has the advantage of possessing enough early speed to sit close but relax and close late as she did winning at Keeneland on Oct 4.
Bob Baffert sent out the Uncle Mo filly Bast. She was second in her debut after a slow start then won the Del Mar Debutante and the Chandelier at SA but wasn’t particularly impressive in her latest win but like British Idiom she gets a good position early and closes off that.
1-Wicked Whisper
2-Donna Veloche
3-British Idiom
Suzee’s Favorites
1-Blast
2-Donna Veloche
3-Wicked Whisper
4-Comical
Jerry’s Picks!
Breeder’s Cup Juv Filly Turf 2019
American based fillies have won this race nine of the eleven years it’s run and Chad Brown having five of those so unlike the other turf races the US has dominated this event,… but this year it doesn’t seem as if there is one of those “stand out” fillies. There is however a few pretty good ones and we start with the American Pharoah filly Sweet Melania who was most impressive winning the Jessamine stakes at Keeneland on Oct 9. She was however beaten in her previous race by the talented Crystalle who was off slowly yet still rallied to win PG Johnson stakes by a neck. In her next start she was argueably the best in the Miss Grillo stakes finishing second beaten only ¾ of a length after running 9 wide turning for home.
Europe can certainly win this if Albigna runs like she did in her last prep race which was a grade one in France. In fact she has only lost one of her four starts and that was mainly because she was in her menstrual cycle during that race. She typically settles back early and comes with a strong run the last quarter and with so much early speed in here the pace sets it up well for her as well as Crystalle. Daahyeh(dayahh) would be the other likely Euro to have an impact. With three wins in her five starts she is the model of consistency. Her last two were a win in a grade 2 and a second ina grade 1
1-Albigna
2-Crystalle
3-Sweet Melania
Suzee’s Top 3
1-Etoile
2-Selflessly
3-Unforgettable
Breeder’s Cup Juvenile 2019
This is a pretty competitive and deeply talented group of two year old colts this year and hard to separate them.
Top of the list in my opinion is Dennis’s Moment out of the Dale Romans barn. He’s basically only had two races because in his first out he was impeded and lost the rider and at least 5 lengths on the far turn yet he rallied rider-less to hit the finish line first. Subsequently he came back to win by almost 20 lengths leading from gate to wire and then won the Iroquois stakes at CD in mid September from slightly off the pace, beating another young talent named Scabbard. Scabbard had a lot of trouble on the far turn in that race yet came again to close within 1 ¾ lengths of Dennis. While Dennis had a lot left in the tank, Scabbard’s effort should be noted.
We can’t talk about two year olds without mentioning Bob Baffert, and this year he comes into the BC with Eight Rings. The son of Empire Maker broke his maiden at Del Mar very impressively winning by more then six lengths.
Somewhat like Dennis’ Moment he lost his rider soon after the start while ducking towards the rail, so there was essentially no race for him. He bounced out of that race fine and won the American Pharoah stakes a month later but didn’t look as strong during the last 1/8 of the races as his competitors have in their respective prep races.
1-Dennis’ Moment
2-Scabbard
3-Eight Rings
Suzee’s Favorites!
1-Eight Rings
2-Dennis’ Momment
3-Maxfield
4-Scabbard
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Jerry’s Picks arriving soon!
SATURDAY
Breeder’s Cup Turf Sprint 2019
This is such a tough race to handicap because so many in here have a chance to win and the chances depend on what kind of racing luck each horse encounters.
Let’s start with the eight year old Pure Sensation who is running in his fourth BC Turf Sprint and he is in the best form of his life. He has used his tremendous speed to win four of his five races in 2019 and with post 2 he should go straight to the lead.
Up front early with Pure Sensation will be Shekky Shebaz,…winner in two of his last three, all on the lead from the start. Final Frontier was the culprit who beat Shekky in his last race and he runs just off the early pace and from post 9 he will have very little traffic.
We can’t talk turf sprint without including Stormy Liberal who won this race the last two years but at seven has lost a step and is winless in his six starts this year.
Others with a chance are Imprimis who has had trouble in his last race and needs a lucky trip this time. Eddie Haskell who has won half of his eight starts this year including three over this course and the filly Belvoir Bay who has six wins on the Santa Anita turf course. One that shouldn’t be overlooked is Leinstercoming in from Kentucky but who won a stakes at Saratoga this summer very impressively and that effort would win this race.
Jerry’s Top 3
1-Final Frontier
2-Pure Sensation
3-Leinster
Suzee’s Favorites
1-Pure Sensation
2-Imprimis
3-Eddy Haskell
Breeder’s Cup Dirt Mile 2019
The headliner here is certainly Omaha Beach who if you remember was the favorite for this year’s Kentucky Derby but just a week before the race he was found to have a breathing issue and was whisked off to surgery. Since then there were several possible race plans made and scrapped until he finally appeared in the Santa Anita Sprint Championship which gave us an epic battle with the talented sprinter Schancelot and Omaha Beach getting his nose down first on the wire. After much debate from trainer Richard Mandella as to whether his colt would run in the Sprint Classic or Dirt Mile, he ends up here and should rule the favorite for sure. He has enough gate speed for jockey Mike Smith to place him in whatever spot he chooses and waits for the right time to launch.
The main competition could come from Coal Front who on his day is as tough as they come. He was brilliant winning the Gallant Bob at Parx back in 2017 but siustained a condular fracture in that race that required surgery and a year vacation. His comeback race was disappointing but since then he has won 3 of his five starts including the Godolphin Mile this spring and the Parx Dirt Mile in his last start. He has brilliant speed and but can rate just off the pace if it gets too hot.
Baffert sends out the enigmatic Improbable who on his day may give all the rest a run for their money but his gate manners need to be perfect. His misbehavior in the gate at Parx cost him the Pa Derby and likely Mike Smith the mount on Mckinzie in the Classic. Even after a poor start that day he every chance to win turning for home but the effort wasn’t there and he settled for fourth beaten less than two lengths and he gave more than that away at the break. If he breaks well he should be just behind Coal Front and Omaha Beach early in the race with a chance to win.. but that’s IF he breaks well.
Giant Expections is another talent with gate behavioral issues. In 12 of his 22 lifetime races he has had a problem at the break and many times it’s cost him the race.
Jerry’s Favorites!
1-Omaha Beach
2-Diamond Oops
3-Improbable
Suzee’s Top 3
1-Omaha Beach
2-Improbable
3-Coal Front
Breeder’s Cup F & M Turf 2019
This is a really high quality and competitive race featuring last year’s winner Sistercharlie who has won six races in a row dating back to July of last year. She comes from well off the pace but has overcome slow paces and wide trips which are usually the undoing of closers. She has enough mid race acceleration as well as the ability to make multiple small moves or a really long protracted move which helps jockey John Velazquez take advantage of opportunities throughout the race.
Fleeting on the other hand seems to be unlucky in races and my guess is that she lacks that quick turn of foot while running at high speed as witnessed in her last race at Ascot, she was making a winning move but was pinched out between horses and had to check, alter course and re-rally and was only beaten a length..she was definately the best that day. The race prior(gr 1 Prix D’ Opera) she had a horrible outside post and was just beaten.. a likely winner with a decent post draw. The top two faced each other in the Beverly D in August of this year and while Fleeting was tracking right in behind Sistercharlie most of the race, Sistercharlie used that acceleration to sprint away at the top of the stretch and Fleeting while slowly closing the gap, never was going to catch the winner. . Iridessa is an interesting 3 yo filly. Winner of two grade ones this season in Ireland, she is trained by former BC winning jockey Joseph O’Brien, son of Aidan O’Brien. She is handy enough to be within four or five lengths early in the races and has quick acceleration during the race to move at an opportune time.
Mrs. Sippy came to trainer Graham Motion this past summer after two uncharacteristically terrible efforts in the UK in May and June. Under new surroundings and Motion, Mrs. Sippy won the Glen’s Falls stakes and was a nice second to Sistercharlie in the Flower bowl at Belmont, both times coming from last. In the Flower Bowl she ran up behind Sister like she would pass her but again Sister’s acceleration was too much.
Villa Marina- winner of the Prix D’Opera at 1 ¼ rates a chance but that day she was the recipient of Fleeting drawing a terrible outside post.
Vasilika has five wins and two thirds this year and is 11 out of `12 at Santa Anita including one at this distance, so she clearly loves this course,.. however those two loses were to east coast fillies suggesting the California fillies and mares in this category maybe not as good as the east coast group.
Jerry’s Favorites!
1-Sistercharlie
2-Fleeting
3-Mrs. Sippy
4-Iridessa
5-Villa Marina
Suzee’s Top 4
1-Sistercharlie
2-Fleeting
3-Mrs. Sippy
4-Fanny Logan
Breeder’s Cup Sprint 2019
This may be the most evenly matched races in the BC and it’s hard to separate the top four contenders with five more that could conceivably win if things break right.
Let’s start with Mitole who is five out of six this year, has never been worse than third in his 13 career starts and has won from six furlongs to a mile. His record at this distance is 10-6-2-2 and is only the third leading money earner in the field. His only blemish this year is a third in the Vanderbuilt at Saratoga behind Imperial Hint and Diamond Oops. That was a bit of a “bounce” race after his Met Mile win, but he bounced back to win the Forego a month later. He can lead or stalk .
This is the third straight BC for Imperial Hint. He was second in 2017 and third last year. His start to the year wasn’t inspiring as he was third in Tampa and the same in Dubai but after almost four months rest, he returned in the Vanderbuilt at Saratoga to demolish a field that included Mitole, while breaking the track record, running six furlongs in 107.4. Two months later he beat Firenze Fire in the Vosburg by a scant nose after losing his lead mid stretch he fought back to win. Like others in here, he has won leading, or stalking and he doesn’t mind sitting in the pocket waiting for his chance which gives his jockey options should he draw an inside post.
Shancelot is yet another one in here that has “set the track on fire” this year. He won his first three career races with a jaw dropping 12 length score in th4 Amsterdam stakes at Saratoga, running the first six furlongs in 107.3 and finishing the six and a half furlongs in 1:14,… just missing the track record. He regressed in his next start as the heavy favorite, finishing second, and in his final prep lost a nose photo to Omaha Beach in the SA Sprint Championship. His game is speed and that’s where he will be. The question with Shancelot, is his best race of 2019 behind him?
Matera Sky coming in from Japan is very interesting. He traveled to Dubai in March and was a very solid second to XY Jet who was the top sprinter at that time, but since being beaten twice in Japan.. hard to gauge,… but he’s fast enough to be close to the pace early.
If there is a pace meltdown the most likely to benefit are Firenze Fire, who is 6-3-1-1 at this distance and was just nosed out by Imperial Hint in the Vosburg last out but seems to do his best running at Belmont Park.
Catalina Cruiser while usually up close early may find himself farther back in this one but his best lifetime effort came at SA at this distance in his second lifetime start. Whitmore started the year at Oaklawn Park with his career best effort in the Hot Springs stakes and while that effort puts him in the mix, he hasn’t been able to reproduce that and has been significantly slower of late.
Jerry’s Top 4
1-Mitole
2-Catalina Cruiser—Imperial Hint-scratched
3-Shancelot
4-Matera Sky
Suzee’s Favorites!
1-Mitole
2-Catalina Cruiser
3-Firenze Fire-Imperial Hint-scratched
Breeder’s Cup Mile 2019
This is the of the tougher BC races to figure out mostly because there is no defined speed and if not much develops, then it’s much harder for dead closers to catch up. Even mid pack type horses without quick acceleration will have a difficult time.
Uni is a closer and a dead closer with a faster pace,.. but she has on two occasions won from four or five lengths off the lead when the pace was slower, which is what she will need to do this race most likely.
Got Stormy isn’t really a speed filly, but she could end up really close early and if allowed to cruise along on or near the lead she can use her quickness to sprint away turning for home and gain an insurmountable advantage. If she runs back to her effort in the Fourstardave, she will be a force. Circus Maximus is one of the better Europeans in the race and he has enough early speed to get a forward position in a race without much “mile type” speed. Winner of two grade ones, he always races close to the pace and seems to be able to sustain a hard run for over ¼ of a mile which will come in handy in a slow paced mile as the competition will be moving earlier than normal, so if he’s up close, he can move with them and not be adversely affected.
Jerry’s Top 3
1-Circus Maximus
2-Uni
3-Got Stormy
Suzee’s Favorites!
1-Circus Maximus
2-Lucullan
3-Uni
Breeder’s Cup Distaff 2019
Midnight Bisou seems unbeatable in this race as she tries for her 8th win in as many races this year and if she does she makes a very good case for the HOY honors. She’s won at this distance twice this year, she’s won three of four at Santa Anita and her arch rival in 2019, Elate, has opted for the Classic. She has no discernable weaknesses tactically and her rider Mike Smith has won the distaff a record five times.
Street Band would seem to be the biggest challenger to Midnight Bisou based upon her recent win in the grade one Cotillion, a career best effort . Earlier in the season she has a tendency to get too aggressive during the early part of her races but her jockey Sophie Doyle has done a good job of keeping her settled.
Dunbar Road has done little wrong this year winning four of six starts including the Alabama but was a no excuse 3rd to Blue Prize and Elate last out in the Spinster. She gets good tactical position and should have every chance to show how good she is but would need to improve several lengths to beat Midnight Bisou.
Jerry’s Top 3
1-Midnight Bisou
2-Street Band
3-Dunbar Road
Suzee’s Top 3
1- Midnight Bisou
2-Street Band
3-Blue Prize/Serengeti Empress
Breeder’s Cup Turf 2019
Bricks and Mortar who is 5 for 5 this year seems the best in here and a win will give him some argument for HOY if other contenders falter in the BC. He had enough tactical speed to be mid pack and he never fails to finish strongly. He’s consistently run faster than any other American horses and the Euro contingent isn’t as strong as in some years. His main rival should be Old Persian who added a win in the Northern Dance stakes at Woodbine to his two wins in Dubai this year but the competition in Canada was a bit weak and his wins in Dubai came with a home field advantage.
Anthony Van Dyck has won two of his five starts this year including the Epsom Derby but he has a bit of a grinding style and although he breaks reasonably well he the drops back and he will need to be very lucky to get through the filed without issues or chance a wide trip and I don’t think he can overcome bad luck with either of those.
Acclimate and Bandua will likely be the pace setters but I don’t think either of those is good enough to carry their speed to the wire. Channel Maker always runs well and is never beaten far but the wins are few, but he has won two grade ones. He came off one of those grade one wins going into last year’s BC Turf but bombed beaten 42 lengths at CD.
Jerry’s Top 3
1-Bricks and Mortar
2-Old Persian
3-Anthony Van Dyck
Suzee’s Favorites!
1-Anthony Van Dyck
2-Bricks and Mortar
3-Channel Maker/Old Persian
Breeders’ Cup Classic 2019
Bob Baffert is coming in with McKinzie trying to win his fourth Classic, (his 3 are already a record) and he may be the favorite but I do have a question of his ability to get the distance. He’s tried it unsuccessfully twice, once in this race last year finishing 12th beaten 31 lengths and then again here in the Big Cap beaten only a nose. Also he isn’t an easy horse to ride as he does not like to run inside of other horses and since he’s never won leading the entire race, an inside draw would most certainly force his hand into going straight to the lead. If that happens as the favorite, he will certainly be pressed mid -race and that would further diminish his chance to win. Code of Honor on the other hand will appreciate all of the mile and a quarter as he showed in his last two wins,..( Travers and JCGC) at this distance, and he doesn’t comes from the clouds to do it. He’s tactical enough to be mid- pack as well as make a middle move to gain a tactical advantage if the race calls for it. His trainer Shug McGaughey is a master at picking out a race and pointing for it during the year and he circled this one a long time ago. Vino Rosso seems to be on then improve, and we know he likes this track and distance shown in winning the SA Gold Cup back here in May. He was beaten fair and square by McKinzie in the Whitney at Saratoga, but then bounced back finishing first in the JCGC, only to be DQ’d for interference in the stretch. But those efforts prove he belongs in the conversation. He can adapt to almost any pace scenario which only helps his cause.
Elate is sort of the wild card to me. She is three for three at a mile and a quarter so that’s the reason she’s in here and not the Distaff but she will need to improve to win, and her last effort at Keeneland doesn’t inspire me but her trainer Bill Mott has won this twice and with 10 BC wins,… he is 4th all time on the wins and money won lists.
Jerry’s Top 4
1-McKinzie
2-Code of Honor
3-Vino Rosso
4-Yoshida
Suzee’s Favorites!
1-Code of Honor
2-Yoshida
3-McKinzie/Vino Rosso
Wishing you Winning Day!
ARCADIA, Calif. – McKinzie in his final work on Monday for the $6 million Breeders’ Cup Classic on Saturday at Santa Anita was timed by Daily Racing Form’s Mike Welsch in 1:00.94 for five furlongs, after which his trainer, Bob Baffert, let out an audible sigh of relief.
“I can relax now,” Baffert said. “These works are so important. He was really smooth. It went just right. No excuses. He’s as ready as I can get him.”
McKinzie will be ridden for the first time in the Classic by Joel Rosario. J.C. Diaz was aboard for the work on Monday, a late change owing to Baffert wanting to be in contact with Diaz via radio during the drill.
“He’s used to the radio. I wanted a guy with a radio,” Baffert said.
After Diaz jogged back with McKinzie after the drill, Baffert called out to him from the track apron.
“Perfecto,” Diaz said.
McKinzie has raced twice at the Classic distance of 1 1/4 miles. He was 12th in last year’s Classic at Churchill Downs, and was narrowly beaten earlier this year in the Santa Anita Handicap.
188 Horses Pre-Entered
for 2019 Breeders’ Cup
World Championships return
to Santa Anita Park for a record 10th time.
With the Longines Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) shaping up as a showdown between older horse McKinzie and 3-year-old Code of Honor, and division standouts like Midnight Bisou and Bricks and Mortar looking to make their case for Horse of the Year honors, 188 horses have been pre-entered in the 2019 Breeders’ Cup World Championships.
The event, featuring five races for juveniles or juvenile fillies Nov. 1 and nine more races Nov. 2, returns to Santa Anita Park for a record 10th time.
The number of pre-entries is down 15% from last year, when 221 horses were pre-entered for the event at Churchill Downs, which, like this year’s schedule, offered 14 races. The total is similar to the past two times the event was held in Southern California: 187 in 2017 at Del Mar and 185 in 2016 at Santa Anita, although those events had only 13 races.
This year’s event has drawn 47 pre-entries from horses conditioned overseas, four fewer than last year. Irish-based trainer Aidan O’Brien has pre-entered 17 horses, the most among trainers. Partnerships associated with Coolmore lead all owners with 18 pre-entries.
There were 50 horses pre-entered after qualifying for automatic starting positions through the Breeders’ Cup Challenge Series.
There will be plenty of North American-based horses competing in races ahead of the Classic, which, as usual, will wrap up the racing Saturday. In the most recent NTRA Top 10 poll, the top four horses are runners who will be competing in races outside the Classic.
Topping that poll is Bricks and Mortar, who will look to cap a perfect season and secure a fifth grade 1 win this year when he starts in the Longines Breeders’ Cup Turf (G1T), which is listed as his first preference. He is also pre-entered in the TVG Breeders’ Cup Mile (G1T) as second preference. The Turf is shaping up as a showdown between Bricks and Mortar and four-time group 1-winning filly and last year’s Turf runner-up, Magical.
Midnight Bisou, second in the poll off an undefeated season that has included three grade 1 wins in her seven starts, is entered in the Longines Breeders’ Cup Distaff (G1).
Perfect in three starts this year is Sistercharlie, who, like Bricks and Mortar, is trained by Chad Brown. Last year’s champion turf female, Sistercharlie, who is ranked third in the NTRA poll, will try for a second straight victory in the Maker’s Mark Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf (G1T).
Rounding out the poll’s top four is crack sprinter Mitole, who, like Midnight Bisou, is trained by Steve Asmussen. The Runhappy Metropolitan Handicap (G1) winner will look to secure a fourth grade 1 win this season in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint (G1).
Those stars will race ahead of the $6 million, 1 1/4-mile Classic, where a pair of horses who scored big wins at Saratoga Race Course this year will meet for the first time: Whitney Stakes (G1) winner McKinzie, a 4-year-old son of Street Sense, and Runhappy Travers Stakes (G1) winner Code of Honor, a 3-year-old son of Noble Mission.
Division Rankings:
Mitole runs next for two Eclipse Award
This year’s Breeders’ Cup Sprint is one of the most highly anticipated races on the championship weekend, and part of the allure this year is the presence of Mitole, leader of not only the male sprint division but also the older dirt males. Of all the horses running on Breeders’ Cup weekend, Mitole has the most to gain or lose in two awards.
Some voters may feel that Mitole has done enough already to earn the Eclipse Award for Champion Male Sprinter, and in some seasons that would be the case. With five wins in six starts, Mitole has racked up three Grade 1 wins and has led this division since early May. Plus, his win over an all-star field in the Met Mile (G1) on Belmont Stakes day was the race of the year up to this point.
The problem for Mitole is that in his lone loss he was defeated by Imperial Hint in Saratoga’s Vanderbilt (G1). While fans of Mitole view that loss as an aberration — it was his first start since that Met Mile, and he was stuck on a dead rail — a loss is a loss.
Imperial Hint has made four starts this year. He began the season with third-place finishes in a listed stakes at Tampa Bay Downs and then in the Dubai Golden Shaheen (G1). After his win over Mitole, he wheeled back in Belmont Park’s Vosburgh (G1) and won by a nose over Firenze Fire.
Could a win in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint be enough for Imperial Hint to overtake Mitole for the Eclipse Award?
For me, it’s still not likely. While Imperial Hint was off from March to late July, Mitole was running in and winning three graded races, two of which were Grade 1s. Yes, a fresh Imperial Hint caught Mitole at the right time in the Vanderbilt. But he didn’t win like a 1-5 choice in the Vosburgh, barely getting up in time to defeat Firenze Fire.
If Imperial Hint wins the Sprint, it may still be a close vote. What Mitole already did this year matters and shouldn’t be forgotten. It will be a tough call, and in a scenario like this, the tiebreaker is often the quality of the previous wins. Advantage, Mitole.
Some will ask about the California-based Catalina Cruiser. The simple fact is that Catalina Cruiser hasn’t even run in a Grade 1 race yet this season. He is unbeaten in three starts, taking the True North (G2), San Diego Handicap (G2) and Pat O’Brien Stakes (G2).
My answer to his supporters would be: Run in the races that will earn you the Eclipse if that’s connections’ goal. Should he win the Sprint, Catalina Cruiser would probably earn some votes, but not enough to win a championship.
In my view, Imperial Hint is the only horse that can possibly unseat Mitole from the No. 1 spot in the sprint division. No other result in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint figures to have an impact on my vote, while the Classic could affect Mitole’s chances at the Champion Older Dirt Mile title.
Here’s an updated look at the Division Rankings:
Older Dirt Males
1. Mitole – He would win the Eclipse with a victory in his next start in the Breeder’s Cup Sprint.
2. McKinzie – No excuses when a disappointing second in the Awesome Again (G1). He will need a win in the Breeders’ Cup Classic and a lot of help to have any shot at the Eclipse.
3. Vino Rosso – Was first across the wire in the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) but was taken down in a DQ and placed second. Has already won at 10 furlongs in California this year in the Gold Cup at Santa Anita (G1) and now has a big shot to win the Breeders’ Cup Classic.
4. Preservationist – Just wasn’t up to the task against tougher in the Jockey Club Gold Cup. Was recently retired.
5. Higher Power – The Pacific Classic (G1) winner stumbled at the start of the Awesome Again and never really threatened the winner. Will give it a go in the Breeders’ Cup.
Next 5: Yoshida, Thunder Snow, Mongolian Groom, Catalina Cruiser, Seeking the Soul.
Older Dirt Females
1. Midnight Bisou – Has had a historic, 7-for-7 season in 2019. Her latest, a victory in the Beldame (G2), was sublime. Regardless of what happens in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff, she will win the Eclipse in this division. The real race for her is Horse of the Year, which she could claim with a win in her career finale.
2. Wow Cat – Ran much better in the Beldame when she was second best to Midnight Bisou. Will likely try that rival again in the Breeders’ Cup.
3. Blue Prize – Impressive in winning the Spinster (G1) for the second year in a row. Fourth in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Distaff, she will try and improve on that this year.
4. Elate – No excuses in her runner-up finish to Blue Prize in the Spinster. The Breeders’ Cup Classic against males will likely be next.
5. Come Dancing – Won her last two sprinting in the Ballerina (G1) and Gallant Bloom (G2), plus prior to that was runner-up to Midnight Bisou in the Ogden Phipps (G1) on Belmont day. Could be a real contender in what should be a deep and contentious Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint.
Next 5: Paradise Woods, She’s a Julie, Secret Spice, Escape Clause, Ollie’s Candy.
3-Year-Old-Males
1. Maximum Security – In my opinion, he still holds a tenuous lead in this division over Code of Honor. A victim of a serious health scare with a severe, acute bout of colic, he had to scratch from the Pennsylvania Derby (G1). He will run this weekend in the Bold Ruler (G3) at Belmont against older horses. This start is crucial for his Eclipse chances.
2. Code of Honor – Finished second in the Jockey Club Gold Cup but was elevated to first via a DQ. Many will rank him No. 1, but the feeling here is that Maximum Security has done more at this point — not to mention he holds a 2-0 record over Code of Honor. The Breeders’ Cup Classic, however, presents a big opportunity to move up.
3. Omaha Beach – Certainly a nice win in the Santa Anita Sprint Championship (G1), but let’s pump the brakes. He faced a fellow 3-year-old male in Shancelot who was just beaten by sophomores, and the four others entered had a combined 37 starts with all but five in maiden or optional claiming ranks.
4. Tacitus – Ran well to be third in the Jockey Club Gold Cup with another on-the-board finish. He placed in all four of his Grade 1 races this year and is now headed off for a break but will return in 2020.
5. Math Wizard – I suppose he moves up here after his upset Pennsylvania Derby win, along with a number of graded placings. But not much separates him from the others underneath.
Next 5: War of Will, Owendale, Mr. Money, Sir Winston, Country House
3-Year-Old-Females
1. Guarana – Missed a chance to separate herself from the rest in the Cotillion (G1). Now, with Guarana done for the year, the door is open for Dunbar Road or perhaps even Covfefe to enter the Eclipse conversation.
2. Dunbar Road – Lost nothing in defeat when running a strong third, beaten a little over a length by the older Blue Prize in the Spinster (G1). She still controls her own Eclipse destiny if she runs again this season.
3. Covfefe – She romped by eight lengths in the Dogwood Stakes at Churchill, her final race before possibly going as the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint favorite.
4. Street Band – Flattered Dunbar Road in her first Grade 1 win as the 7-1 winner of the Cotillion. Prior to that, she was third to Dunbar Road in the Alabama. Her other wins this year were in the Indiana Oaks (G3) and Fair Grounds Oaks (G2). Will run next in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff.
5. Point of Honor – Black-Eyed Susan (G2) winner finished well in her runner-up finish to Guarana in the CCA Oaks but was no match for Dunbar Road in the Alabama. She’s done for the season and will be back at 4.
Next 5: Serengeti Empress, Bellafina, Concrete Rose, Royal Charlotte, Jaywalk.
Turf Males
1. Bricks and Mortar – With this Eclipse now seemingly decided, he’s one of the two main Horse of the Year players. His connections are leaning toward going a career-long distance in the Breeders’ Cup Turf.
2. Arklow – Finally scored his first Grade 1 win as he beat several ranked below him here in the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic (G1) at Belmont Park.
3. Sadler’s Joy – It may be a stretch to rank him this high with only a runner-up effort this year, but the division has no other horse who has stepped forward beside the top two. He is, however, bypassing the Breeders’ Cup.
4. World of Trouble – Now retired, he was nearly unbeatable sprinting.
5. Raging Bull – Beaten a little over a length in the Woodbine Mile (G1) after being last early. Third to the No. 1 two back in the Manhattan (G1), and runner-up in the Fourstardave (G1) earlier this season.
Next 5: Channel Cat, Channel Maker, Zulu Alpha, Old Persian, Acclimate.
Turf Females
1. Sistercharlie – She’s quite simply one of the best turf female stars we have seen in quite a long time. With the Eclipse in the bag, she will try and become the first back-to-back winner of the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf, but she will have her hands full with the star European filly Magical.
2. Uni – This talented mare put it all together with a tour de force win in the First Lady (G1) at Keeneland and set herself up to be supplemented to the Breeders’ Cup Mile. Previously ran third in Got Stormy’s Fourstardave win.
3. Vasilika – Traveled east to run in the First Lady at Keeneland and could only muster up a third-place finish in what could have been a statement race.
4. Rushing Fall – Was off the the board for the first time in her career in the First Lady. Now, it’s time for a break.
5. Magic Wand – From Arlington and her runner-up finish to Bricks and Mortar, she crossed the pond again to run a strong second to top filly Magical in the Irish Champion Stakes (G1) at Leopardstown.
Next 5: Got Stormy, Cambier Parc, Beau Recall, Homerique, Starship Jubilee.
Male Sprinters
1. Mitole – The leader of this division, his final career start will come in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint.
2. World of Trouble – Previously, his Jaipur (G1) score made him a Grade 1 winner this year on turf and dirt.
3. Imperial Hint – Got the job done in the Vosburgh at Belmont but really had to work for the win. Will go next in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint with a tall order ahead in a rematch with Mitole.
4. Firenze Fire – Only one win this year, but he shows up every time to run a big race. He gave Imperial Hint all he could handle in the Vosburgh, losing by nose.
5. Catalina Cruiser – Only sprinted once this year, producing a win in the True North (G2) at Belmont. He too is likely for the Breeders’ Cup Sprint.
Next 5: Roy H, X Y Jet, Omaha Beach, Shancelot, Giant Expectations.
Female Sprinters
1. Come Dancing – With the Gallant Bloom win and the the Ballerina (G1) in August, she takes over this spot. Her only loss this year is a runner-up finish to Midnight Bisou. She will point to the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint where she will take on Covfefe in a battle for the Eclipse.
2. Covfefe – The Test (G1) winner aced her final prep in Churchill’s Dogwood. Will win a sprint Eclipse if she gets the job done at Santa Anita.
3. Spiced Perfection – Running for the first time since May, she for the job done by a head in the Thoroughbred Club of America Stakes (G2) at Keeneland.
4. Marley’s Freedom – Hasn’t run since early July, and likely won’t return this season.
5. Hotshot Anna – Now 3-for-4 on the season, she defeated Late Night Pow Wow and Talk Veuve to Me in the recent Presque Isle Downs Masters (G2). A feature win at the current Keeneland meet could mark her finale, as she’s entered in the November sale there.
Next 5: Mia Mischief, Royal Charlotte, Late Night Pow Wow, Break Even, Amy’s Challenge.
2-Year-Old Males
1. Dennis’ Moment – Runaway maiden winner passed his first stakes test with his Iroquois (G3) win, but shipping to California for the Breeders’ Cup is no easy task. Others aren’t as far behind this guy as many would think.
2. Eight Rings – Rebounded from losing his rider in his last start to win the American Pharoah (G1) in front running fashion. The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile will be next for this son of Empire Maker.
3. Tiz the Law – Two for two in his career, he passed his first stakes test with flying colors in the Champagne (G1) at Belmont. He’ll focus on spots other than the Breeders’ Cup.
4. Maxfield – Runaway winner of the Breeders’ Futurity (G1), he also passed his first stakes test with flying colors. Also two for two on his career.
5. Green Light Go – The Saratoga Special (G2) winner finished runner-up to Tiz the Law in the Champagne.
Next 5: Scabbard, Basin, Wrecking Crew, Collusion Illusion, American Theorem.
2-Year-Old Females
1. Bast – Ran off with the Del Mar Debutante (G1) by more than eight lengths but had to work for her win in the Chandelier (G1) over Comical. Will go next in the Breeders’ Cup. Her latest offers others hope.
2. Wicked Whisper – Jockey Joel Rosario hardly had to move in her gate-to-wire victory in the Frizette (G1), making this half-sister of Point of Honor 2-for-2.
3. British Idiom – The $40,000 purchase also became a Grade 1 winner of Keeneland’s Alcibiades, cruising when upping her record to 2-for-2.
4. Kimari – With a last-to-first charge in Keeneland’s Indian Summer, this turf filly stated her Breeders’ Cup case and became a multiple stakes winner. Earlier this year, she was also a close second at Royal Ascot.
5. Perfect Alibi – Clearly second best to British Idiom, the Spinaway (G1) winner two back owns multiple stakes wins to remain here in defeat.
Next 5: Comical, Lazy Daisy, Amalfi Sunrise, Frank’s Rockette, Inspiressa.
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Math Wizard
The Pennsylvania Derby lost some of its luster when it was announced that Maximum Security had a colon ailment and would not be running in the Grade 1 stakes. Yet as much as the 1 1/8-mile stakes lost its marquee starter in the horse who was disqualified from first to 17th in the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve, the absence of the initial morning-line favorite leaves a wide-open race without an obvious front-runner with a bull’s-eye on his back. Even though there are only six starters, it should be an interesting betting affair with little separating the top three betting choices.
GRADE 1 PENNSYLVANIA DERBY
1. Math Wizard (6-1): A wise $25,000 claim by trainer Saffie A. Joseph Jr. who has turned into a graded-stakes-placed runner. Was no factor when sixth at 9-2 odds last time out against the victorious Mr. Money in the West Virginia Derby, but was much more competitive against him in the Indiana Derby, where he finished only four lengths behind him. He was also second in the Ohio Derby behind Owendale, who was third in the Preakness. Could be a major factor if the pace gets overly contentious.
JOCKEY: Edgard Zayas TRAINER: Saffie A. Joseph Jr.
2. Improbable (8-5): He came into the year as one of the favorites for the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve and went off as the 4-1 favorite in the run for the roses despite finishing second in his two preps. He was moved up to fourth via disqualification in the Kentucky Derby and then finished sixth in the Preakness Stakes, again as the 5-2 favorite. A victory in the Shared Belief Stakes at Del Mar while equipped with blinkers finally put him in the winner’s circle in 2019 and perhaps he’s ready to reclaim a spot among the leaders of the 3-year-old division. A victory would give trainer Bob Baffert his third straight win in this Grade 1 stakes.
JOCKEY: Mike Smith TRAINER: Bob Baffert
3. Shanghai Superfly (30-1): Those morning-line odds actually seem ridiculously low on an outclassed maiden with an 0-for-8 record who is taking on winners for the first time.
JOCKEY: Frankie Pennington TRAINER: Marcos Zulueta
4. War of Will (4-1): It’s been a spotty year for him, but when he’s at his best, he ranks among the very best in the division as evidenced by his wins in the Preakness and Risen Star Stakes Presented by Lamarque Ford. He’s coming off a fifth in the Jim Dandy Stakes, which followed a ninth in the Belmont Stakes, but his sharp recent workouts indicate he may ready for another top effort.
JOCKEY: Tyler Gaffalione TRAINER: Mark Casse
5. Spun to Run (8-1): He the only starter with experience on the Parx main track and that’s a big factor for a surface that some horses have trouble handling. In fact, he has three wins at Parx, capped by a victory in the Grade 3 Smarty Jones Stakes. Being a horse for the course, he could sneak into the picture at a square price.
JOCKEY: Paco Lopez TRAINER: Juan Carlos Guerrero
6. Mr. Money (2-1): He gets tested for class here after four straight Grade 3 wins in the last four months. He’s won those races by a combined margin of 20 ¼ lengths and his speed figures indicate he will be a major factor here. He should be on or near the lead from the outside post and how demanding the pace turns out to be should play a major role in the outcome.
Breeders’ Cup Divisional leaders Sept 1 2019
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