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MINUTES TO POST…KENTUCKY DERBY 2021

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Jerry & Suzee Bailey

It’s Post Time!

Join our COFFEEBREAKWITHFRIENDS

“Table of Discussion,” with

Hall of Fame Jockey Jerry Bailey,

who will share his favorites picks for

the Kentucky Oaks and the “Run For the Roses”…

 Thoroughbred Horse Racing’s most exciting 2 minutes in sports!

There are few American sporting events with the history and popularity of the Kentucky Derby.

 Sipping a mint julep, donning a beautiful hat, and

singing “My Old Kentucky Home” all  transcend  the rich tradition of this exciting event.

 The Kentucky Derby is the longest running sporting event in the United States,

dating back to 1875 and one of the most prestigious thoroughbred horseraces in the world!

It’s your winning ticket to a thrilling day of beauty and prestigious competition! 

Visit Jerry or Suzee on Twitter or Facebook!

http://@jerrydbailey

@suzeebailey

Coffeebreakwithfriends  

or e-mail us at:

coffeebreakwithfriendswebsite@gmail.com

We look forward to hearing from you!

 

 

Jerry’s Top Picks !

 

Jerry’s Favorites!

Kentucky Derby 2021 Talking Points

FAVORITES ARE IN ORDER

  1. Hot Rod Charlie.. to me he’s the horse on the improve the most.  Second to Essential Quality in last year’s Breeder’s Cup  Juvenile, he started this year with a very close third in the Robert Lewis stakes at Santa Anita on Jan 30, coming from five lengths back then won the Louisiana Derby leading gate to wire so he is versatile in his running style.  He breaks well and should get a stalking trip not far off the lead and should have every chance to win if he’s good enough.His pedigree is a little light on the Damn side (grandsire Indian Charlie was suspect on anything past a mile and an eighth) but his sire Oxbow won the Preakness.
  2. Rock Your World Undefeated in three starts and most recently winner of the Santa Anita Derby leading gate to wire and his first time on the dirt . With no other real speed in the race he should control a moderate pace but if the situation calls for it he can certainly stalk just off the leader  from post 15, as he did in one of his turf wins. His pedigree( Candy Ride/ grandsire Empire Maker) suggests the  added distance will be in his favor.
  3. Essential Quality- he has no weaknesses. He’s undefeated, has won from close to the pace or from far back depending on pace. He’s won on fast tracks and wet ones and won here at CD in his first race overcoming trouble. With all those things going for him the one question mark I have is can he run faster than he has been? He may need to to win, and from poet 14 if he is too wide on both turns then his job gets a lot more difficult.
  4. Known Agenda- the Florida Derby winner is certainly on the improve since adding blinkers two races back. With little early speed he would also need to run faster than he has previously and have some racing luck getting through much of the field. He’s more of a grinder with plenty of stamina but only marginal “race speed acceleration” which makes it harder to advance through traffic  but certainly helps with the added distance. Jockey Irad Ortiz Jr is a plus as is trainer Todd Pletcher.
  5. Midnight Bourbon-  he’s the model of consistency ,never worse than third in all seven lifetime races he comes off a nice second place finish to Hot Rod Charlie in the Louisiana Derby. He has won on and stalking the lead and with no other true speed inside of him and from post 10 , he could very well set the pace in the Derby. He will have no problem with the mile and a quarter but like others will need to step up his game to win. Having Mike Smith on his back won’t hurt his chances.
  6. Medina Spirit-  from the Baffert barn he certainly has a chance in here but like others he will need to run faster than he has prior to this. He has won on the lead and stalking the front end and will likely be up close in the Derby just behind Rock Your World who beat him by 4 ½ lengths in the Santa Anita Derby last time out for both. Unlike Baffert’s horses of late, he was a bargain purchase at auction for $35,000 for his owner Zenden racing stable. After his win in the Robert B Lewis, it was discovered that he had a slight breathing issue so a minor procedure was done in the stall to correct it and since  he only missed a week of track time , there was little if any negative affect.
  7. Highly Motivated- coming off a gutty second place finish to Essential Quality in the Bluegrass stakes he has never been worse than third in all five lifetime starts and if he had a better break form the gate in two of those his record might be four out of five… but that’s his issue , breaking true and straight. If he can break well and get an forward position early it will help his chances immensely. In my opinion he could be a little distance limited and get weak late in the stretch but he is certainly talented.
  8. Obesos- Third place finisher in the Louisiana Derby closing well late in the stretch just behind Hot Rod Charlie and Midnight Bourbon. Other than his first race when he broke slowly over a sloppy track, and his wide trip in the Risen Star stakes, he’s run really well. His best race is settling early and making one late run but he will need to have a traffic free trip and avoid huge ground loss to have a chance , but he could hit the board at a big price.
  9. Mandaloun- a puzzler is this one.  Based upon his win in the Risen Star stakes after adding blinkers, He was the favorite in the Louisiana Derby and had a perfect trip looking like the winner at the top of the stretch, he completely melted and finished 6th beaten almost a dozen lengths. The bigger concern is that trainer Brad Cox said there was no apparent  reason for the disappointing effort. He has trained better than most at Churchill Downs since then so it’s anyone’ s guess which Mandaloun will show up.
  10. 10.Dynamic One-  RunnESSer up in the Wood Memorial he is one of four from the Pletcher barn. His wide trip cost him the race in the Wood and he would need to get really lucky to avoid a similar trip with 20 horses in the Derby but he has good “race speed “ acceleration which will help his jockey Jose Ortiz through the race. His sire Union Rags won the Belmont so distance isn’t the issue with this guy but he will need to run at least  five lengths faster to get the roses.

Suzee’s Top 3!

1-ROCK YOUR WORLD

2-ESSENTIAL QUALITY

3-SOUP & SANDWICH (LOVE THE NAME AN

***************************************

 

The first running of the Kentucky Oaks was on May 19, 1875 when Churchill Downs was known as the Louisville Jockey Club. The race was founded by Meriwether Lewis Clark, Jr. along with the Kentucky Derby.

The Oaks and the Derby are the oldest continuously contested sporting events in history, and the only horse races to be held at their original site since its conception. The Longines Kentucky Oaks was modeled after the British Epsom Oaks.

The Kentucky Oaks has become a celebration of the ladies, featuring the Pink Out, the Survivors Parade Presented by Kroger, and the Longines Kentucky Oaks Fashion Contest.

         

Kentucky Oaks 2021 Talking Points

CONGRATS MALATHAAT, TEAM PLETCHER AND JOHNNY V!

This year’s edition of the Oaks is as deep as it has been in many years with no real standout but very little between the top four. All of those who won their prep races!  Malathaat won the Ashland, Travel Column won the Fairgrounds Oaks, Pauline’s Pearl won the Fantasy, and Search Results won the Gazelle.  Even the runner up in several of those preps stand a chance.

  1. Malathaat Undefeated in four starts – overcame trouble in Demoiselle last fall at Aqu for a closing win. Only start this year was a win in the Ashland just barely running down pass the Champagne but that was at a mile and a sixteenth and the short wire at Keeneland – so the extra distance and longer stretch at CD will only help her cause. From post 10 she will likely have a clear trip but it would help if she can save a little ground on the first turn- but from post 10, it wont be easy
  2.   Search Results –  Only three lifetime starts all this year-  but each more impressive than the previous, culminating with a win in the Gazelle stakes at Aqueduct by a lengthening two and a half lengths. She’s basically a stalker but has enough early speed to get a good position and from post 12 she will need to use some of that speed to avoid a major ground loss into the first turn.  From post 12-  jockey Irad Ortis Jr will likely need to use some of her speed to avoid an extremely wide trip early in the race.
  3. Travel Column –   The co- second choice and could easily be the favorite based upon her convincing win in the Fair Grounds Oaks over rival Clairiere who beat her in the Rachel Alexandra – but TC does hold a 2-1 win advantage winning the Golden Rod here last fall as well. The last filly to win the Golden Rod, Fair Grounds Oaks and KY Oaks was Rachel Alexandra. This filly has generally been a stalker, although with little early pace in her last, she was up on the lead and took over at ¼ pole. With little other early speed in the race she could find herself on or very close to the lead.
  4.  Pass the Champagne- A very good runner up in the Ashland to Malathaat  and with post 5 she should be close to a moderate pace saving ground early.
  5.  Clairiere- Runner up to Travel Column in the Fair Grounds Oaks last out, she needs to improve off that. She looked exhausted deep in the stretch and now adds another 110 yards to the distance so that is a concern. The fact that she did beat Travel Column in a  previous meeting does give her some hope.

 

Suzee’s Top Choices 

1-Malathaat

2-Crazy Beautiful -(Aren’t they all crazy beautiful!)😉

3-Pass the Champagne

4-Millefeuille – My longshot😉

 

 

***************

Malathaat trains at Churchill Downs on April 20

Barbara D. Livingston – Malathaat,

shown training at Churchill on April 20,
is a daughter of Dreaming of Julia, who finished fourth
as the favorite in the 2013 Kentucky Oaks.Go to PPs

LOUISVILLE, Ky. – Eight years after her mother finished fourth as the favorite in the Kentucky Oaks, Malathaat will try to make amends for the family when she starts as the likely favorite in a full field of 14 3-year-old fillies entered in Friday’s $1.25 million Kentucky Oaks at Churchill Downs.

In 2013, Dreaming of Julia was the 3-2 favorite in a loaded renewal of the Oaks. Dreaming of Julia got sideswiped coming out of the gate, was well off the pace, then had to steady again entering the far turn before making a belated bid to finish fourth behind her 36-1 Todd Pletcher-trained stablemate Princess of Sylmar.

Pletcher is the trainer of Malathaat, whom he calls “a bigger, scopier version” of Dreaming of Julia. Malathaat, a $1.05 million yearling purchase by Shadwell Stable, is by Curlin.

Malathaat comes into the 147th Oaks undefeated in four starts. At 2, she went 3 for 3 including a win in the Grade 2 Demoiselle, which is run at the Oaks distance of 1 1/8 miles. A minor setback cost her some time during the winter. Malathaat didn’t debut until four weeks ago when she was able to run down Pass the Champagne to win the Grade 1 Ashland at Keeneland by a head.

:: Get Kentucky Derby Betting Strategies for exclusive wager recommendations, contender profiles, pedigree analysis, and more

“She had to work, she came home the last quarter in 23-and-2 and ran down a nice filly,” Pletcher said.

The question is whether just one race in 146 days is enough to have Malathaat ready to beat 13 opponents, all of whom have more racing this year.

“I think so because she’s naturally designed to go a mile and an eighth,” said Pletcher, a three-time Oaks winner. “The further she goes, the better she gets. She had a good foundation of 2-year-old races into her.”

John Velazquez will ride Malathaat from post 10.

In her two graded stakes wins, Malathaat narrowly beat Millefeuille in the Demoiselle and Pass the Champagne in the Ashland.

While those two certainly warrant respect Friday, there are others who could be tougher.

Travel Column won the Grade 2 Golden Rod here last fall and has two graded wins this year, including the Grade 2 Fair Grounds Oaks on March 20. With a good break from the gate that day, Travel Column raced up close and dominated Clairiere by 2 3/4 lengths.

“If you can sit that trip and punch on down the lane at Fair Grounds, you’d like to think you could get it done here at Churchill,” said Brad Cox, who trains Travel Column, an $850,000 yearling purchase, for Larry Best’s OXO Equine. “Similar ovals, long stretches. I’m excited about the opportunity with her.”

:: Get DRF Clocker Reports for the Kentucky Derby and Oaks cards to access exclusive insights from morning training

Cox has won two of the last three Oaks with Monomoy Girl (2018) and Shedaresthedevil (2020). In addition to Travel Column, Cox also will saddle Coach, a stakes winner here who figures to be lower than her 50-1 morning-line odds.

Steve Asmussen, a two-time Oaks-winning trainer, sends out Clairiere and Pauline’s Pearl. Clairiere was able to beat Travel Column in the Rachel Alexandra before her loss to that same rival in the Fair Grounds Oaks.

Asmussen is looking for a bounce-back effort Friday in her third start off the layoff from her 2-year-old season.

“Everything about her mentally and physically tells us she’s going to be better with time, and I believe that to be true,” Asmussen said.

Getting to run Clairiere 1 1/8 miles “is something I’ve been looking forward to for a long time,” Asmussen said.

Pauline’s Pearl, a daughter of Tapit, will be making her sixth start since she began racing in December. She is coming off her best performance winning the Grade 3 Fantasy Stakes on April 3 at Oaklawn Park.

“She has just moved forward by leaps and bounds with racing,” Asmussen said.

Crazy Beautiful enters the Oaks off a last-to-first victory in the Grade 2 Gulfstream Park Oaks. Trainer Ken McPeek said he loved the way Jose Ortiz rode her that day and hopes to get a similar type of trip on Friday.

“I think she’s going to need a little pace in front of her to get it done,” McPeek said. “She’s going to have to fire her best shot but I had pretty good luck with horses third off the layoff, this is her third race off the layoff. I think she’s as good as we can get her.”

:: DRF’s Kenucky Derby Headquarters: Contenders, latest news, past performances, analysis, and more

The pace could come from Ava’s Grace and Moraz. Ava’s Grace set the pace in the Fantasy only to get beat a length by Pauline’s Pearl. Moraz was the pacesetter in the Santa Anita Oaks before finishing third behind Soothsay.

Search Results is 3 for 3 and coming off a victory in the Grade 2 Gazelle. She drew post 12, but five of the last seven Oaks winners have been drawn in post 12, 13, or 14.

“I’d rather be outside and cruise up if they break clean and get a good spot,” trainer Chad Brown said.

Brown felt that Search Results got a lot out of the Gazelle because it was run over a demanding Aqueduct surface.

Millefeuille bounced back from a seventh-place finish in the Davona Dale to finish second to Crazy Beautiful in the Gulfstream Oaks. She drew post 14, but that post has produced Oaks winners Lemons Forever and Monomoy Girl in the last 15 years.

In the Ashland, Pass the Champagne split horses at the top of the lane under Javier Castellano, opened up a clear lead, but was run down late by Malathaat. George Weaver thinks both the filly and Castellano will benefit from the experience.

“It’s a benefit that he sat on her and he’s ridden her two turns on the dirt before,” Weaver said. “The night she was second in the Ashland, he felt [2016 Oaks winner] Cathryn Sophia ran like that at Keeneland and came over to Churchill and ran big. The filly’s training really well, she’s a got a great turn of foot when he needs it.”

Maracuja, second to Search Results in the Gazelle; Will’s Secret, the Honeybee winner and third in the Ashland; and Competitive Speed complete the field.

The Oaks goes as race 11 on a 13-race card that begins at 10:30 a.m. NBC Sports Network will broadcast six hours of coverage from Churchill beginning at noon Eastern.

While it is expected to rain here Thursday, the forecast for Friday calls for mostly sunny skies with temperatures in the mid to upper 60s.

*************************

Essential Quality trains at Churchill Downs on April 24

Barbara D. Livingston

Undefeated Essential Quality is the 2-1 morning-line favorite for the 147th Kentucky Derby

LOUISVILLE, Ky. – Essential Quality was assigned post 14 in a full gate of 20 3-year-olds set to race Saturday in the 147th Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs.

Essential Quality will have Luis Saez aboard as the 2-1 morning-line favorite for the 1 1/4-mile race. The undefeated Godolphin homebred colt will be looking to become just the third 2-year-old champion in more than 40 years to win the Derby, following Street Sense (2007) and Nyquist (2016).

Trainer Brad Cox said at the Tuesday post-position draw at the track that he was happy with post 14. “You like to be somewhere in the middle, where you’re comfortable, and go from there,” he said.

Post time for the Derby, the 12th of 14 Saturday races, is 6:57 p.m. Eastern. NBC will provide extensive live coverage of the famed Run for the Roses starting at 2:30.

A fast track is expected for Saturday, with sunshine and a daytime high of 73 in the local forecast.

One of the other Derby favorites, Known Agenda (6-1), was assigned post 1 with the three-time reigning Eclipse champion jockey, Irad Ortiz Jr., named to ride. No Derby winner has left from post 1 since Ferdinand in 1986.

Perhaps worth noting is that this will be the second year for a 20-stall, 65-foot starting gate. It’s a gate that Churchill custom-ordered from Australia and first used last year to alleviate problems inherent with linking together a standard 14-stall gate with a six-stall auxiliary gate.

“I think there’s a little less concern now (about post 1) with the new starting gate, where you actually have room to go somewhere into the first turn,” said Todd Pletcher, a two-time prior winner who has Known Agenda, the Florida Derby winner, as one of four starters in this year’s running, along with Sainthood (post 5), Dynamic One (post 11), and Bourbonic (post 20).

“But you do risk the potential of getting shuffled way back. I was happy with the way (Known Agenda) ran in the Florida Derby, where he was inside when he got up into the first turn and backside, and he was able to advance and improve his position and showed he can handle being inside.” The one-hole is “just less than an ideal place to start.”

Besides Essential Quality, a winner in all five starts, two other unbeaten colts also are in the field – Rock Your World (post 15) and Helium (post 12), both 3 for 3. Justify (2018) and Nyquist were the latest horses to win the Derby while still undefeated.

Rock Your World, with Joel Rosario riding, is the 5-1 second choice and one of the expected front-runners after going wire-to-wire in winning the Santa Anita Derby in his last start.

“It was a good draw for us,” said his trainer, John Sadler. “I think we wanted to be outside; that’s usually where you have a little clearer trip. So, he’s got tactical speed; we’ll see how it shakes out, but overall, we’re pleased with the draw.”

Cox, winner of the 2020 Eclipse Award for outstanding trainer, will be participating in his first Derby; he also will have Mandaloun (post 7) joining Essential Quality in the starting gate. Cox is trying to become the first Louisville-born trainer to win the Derby.

Cox noted that he won the Kentucky Oaks three years ago when Monomoy Girl broke from post 14.

“I think if we get the trips with either horse, we’re going to be really tough,” he said. “That’s how confident I am.”

Bob Baffert, who tied Ben A. Jones for most Derby wins (six) by a trainer when winning the Derby with Authentic last September, has one starter this year in Medina Spirit (post 8).

With a $3 million purse, the winner’s share will be $1,860,000, assuming all 20 start.

As of this year, Lasix treatment is no longer allowed in graded stakes in Kentucky, including the Derby.

The only equipment change is for Keepmeinmind (blinkers off).

First post Friday and Saturday is 10:30 a.m. Eastern.

– additional reporting by David Grening

147th Kentucky Derby
Grade 1, $3 million
To be run Saturday at Churchill Downs
1 1/4 miles
Post, 6:57 p.m. Eastern
Television: NBC (2:30-7:30)
Race 12 of 14

1. Known Agenda, 6-1

2. Like the King, 50-1

3. Brooklyn Strong, 50-1

4. Keepmeinmind, 50-1

5. Sainthood, 50-1

6. O Besos, 20-1

7. Mandaloun, 15-1

8. Medina Spirit, 15-1

9. Hot Rod Charlie, 8-1

10. Midnight Bourbon, 20-1

11. Dynamic One, 20-1

12. Helium, 50-1

13. Hidden Stash, 50-1

14. Essential Quality, 2-1

15. Rock Your World, 5-1

16. King Fury, 20-1

17. Highly Motivated, 10-1

18. Super Stock, 30-1

19. Soup and Sandwich, 30-1

20.  Bourbonic, 30-1

Blinkers off: Keepmeinmind

* Morning-line odds