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IN THE NEWS…SHOULD YOU GET THE NEW OMICRON BOOSTER?
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IN THE NEWS
Sorry to break it to you, but COVID is still here — and likely to stick around indefinitely. What exactly that will mean in the future is uncertain, but evidence so far suggests that the coronavirus has joined the endemic germ club, and that means one thing: annual boosters.
In fact, a new, slightly modified COVID booster designed to protect against the latest Omicron subvariants — BA.4 and BA.5 — is now ready for your arm. Because we know you can get COVID over and over, the booster may help spare you from a second, third, or even fourth infection.
The CDC’s vaccine committee officially recommended the new booster Thursday, Sept. 1, and an endorsement from the agency’s director followed shortly after.
You can get the updated Omicron booster if you are at least two months out from receiving your primary series or first or second booster dose. Only people 12 and older can get the new Pfizer booster while only those 18 and older can get the new Moderna booster.
The CDC said additional recommendations for the updated Omicron booster, including those for children under 12 years old, will likely follow in the coming weeks.
“The updated COVID-19 boosters are formulated to better protect against the most recently circulating COVID-19 variant. They can help restore protection that has waned since previous vaccination and were designed to provide broader protection against newer variants,” CDC Director Rochelle Walensky said in a statement. “This recommendation followed a comprehensive scientific evaluation and robust scientific discussion. If you are eligible, there is no bad time to get your COVID-19 booster and I strongly encourage you to receive it.”
Is this booster even worth getting?
The currently available vaccines target the first coronavirus strain that emerged in 2019 and 2020. However, real-world evidence suggests that they just can’t keep up with all the mutations that have occurred since, particularly those that gave rise to BA.4 and BA.5.
These subvariants began to dominate in early July, with BA.5 now making up about 89% of COVID cases in the US (BA.4 makes up about 7.5%), just months after the original Omicron strain took over at the end of 2021. Most concerning, however, is that BA.4 and BA.5 are better than previous versions of the virus when it comes to evading the body’s defenses gained from natural infections and vaccinations.
Anticipating the subvariants’ dominance in the US, the FDA in June asked Pfizer and Moderna to develop modified “bivalent” versions of their vaccines to be used this fall, and the companies delivered. Both Pfizer and Moderna have submitted their applications to the FDA for emergency use authorization in people ages 12 and older (Pfizer) and those ages 18 and older (Moderna). (The original vaccines will still be used to “provide a base of protection,” the FDA said, with the new bivalent shot acting as a booster.)
Although the arrival of bivalent boosters is welcome news, some experts we spoke to said they think they’re coming a bit too late. Ideally, Americans would enter the fall season already armed with this revamped protection. Nevertheless, it’s important for those who are eligible to get the modified shot as soon as possible. After all, BA.5 is still behind most infections occurring today.
“COVID is not going to disappear. It’s going to stay with us for a long time. And that’s what we have seen with similar viruses in the past,” Ali Mokdad, chief strategy officer for population health at the University of Washington, told BuzzFeed News. “This virus is going to keep mutating and could possibly produce an escape variant that could be more severe than what we’re seeing right now.
“We need that [new booster] immediately,” Mokdad said.
I haven’t received a booster yet. Should I wait for the new Omicron shot (if it’s not available)?
No. If you have only received your first two COVID shots, it’s not worth waiting for the new bivalent booster. The risks of infection and long COVID are just too high, Mokdad said. (Remember it takes about two weeks to gain maximum protection from the vaccine.)
“My answer has always been that the best vaccine for you is what’s available for you right now,” he said. “I wouldn’t risk two months, three months, or even two weeks without protection against hospitalization and death knowing there is a vaccine that can protect me from it.”
Still, the answer to this question depends on who’s asking, said Dr. Allison Bartlett, pediatrician and associate medical director of infection control at University of Chicago Medicine.
People who are relatively healthy and under the age of 50 could probably afford to wait for the new Omicron booster because their risk of severe illness is relatively low. (However, keep in mind that anyone can develop long COVID, no matter how young, healthy, or mild your infection is.)
But those who are older and/or immunocompromised may be better off getting boosted as soon as possible with whatever is available, “especially since as a society we are not working very hard on the other mitigation measures, including masking,” Bartlett told BuzzFeed News.
“There is definitely an advantage to the bivalent component, but again for individuals who remain vulnerable and are at high risk, the right thing to do is to get that booster now,” she said.
I’m already up to date with my boosters. Can I get the Omicron one, too?
Yes. As long as it has been two months since you received your last booster dose, whether it was your first or second one, then you can get the updated shot.
I’m vaccinated, boosted, and had COVID. Do I really need the new booster?
You’re right to think your immune system is equipped with enough defenses to tackle COVID if exposed again, but if we’ve learned anything in the last two years, it’s that protection from both infection and vaccination wanes over time, and more quickly than you might think.
So the short answer is yes.
Bartlett said people who have had their recommended one or two boosters likely fall into the category of those who can safely wait to get the bivalent booster, especially if they’ve gotten COVID or been vaccinated within the last four months.
The CDC said you may consider delaying getting the updated booster shot by three months if you recently had COVID. You can get it earlier than that if you wish, but just make sure you’ve completely recovered from your infection.
A Qatar study that has yet to be peer reviewed found that people who had a pre-Omicron COVID infection had about a 28% protection against BA.4 or BA.5. A prior Omicron infection, however, offered stronger protection; it was found to be about 80% effective against BA.4 and BA.5.
Overall, studies show protection from infection can begin to wane at around four months, but the immune system is pretty complex, so this can vary from person to person.
A 10-state analysis released by the CDC in February found that a COVID booster was 91% effective against hospitalization two months after vaccination as Omicron spread. After four months, however, the booster’s effectiveness dropped to 78%.
Can the new Omicron booster prevent a new variant from emerging?
Unfortunately, no. As long as the virus continues to spread, it has the opportunity to mutate into a different and potentially more dangerous version of itself.
“[The new booster] will not help future variants from emerging, but it will help us defend against them,” Mokdad said. On the more positive side, he doesn’t think a future variant will have the same massive impact Omicron did because many people in the US now have some immunity from vaccines and infections. We also have powerful treatments, like Paxlovid, that may prevent people from developing severe COVID.
Even so, it’s impossible to predict what the next variant may look like. “Will it be another version of Omicron or will it be a completely different Greek letter variant? It’s hard to predict,” Bartlett said.
“What the long-term cadence is of both the timing of evolution of the virus and timing of our ability to get boosters remains to be determined,” Bartlett said. “As with all things COVID, many more questions remain than we have answers for.” ●
UPDATE
This article has been updated to reflect the CDC’s authorization of the new booster on Thursday, Sept. 1.
What You Need to Know
- As with vaccines for other diseases, people are best protected against infection with the virus that causes COVID-19 when they stay up to date with vaccinations.
- COVID-19 vaccines continue to protect people from getting seriously ill, being hospitalized, and even dying—especially people who have received a booster.
- CDC recommends everyone ages 12 years and older receive a COVID-19 vaccine booster after completing their primary COVID-19 vaccination series. Some people can receive two boosters.
- People who are moderately or severely immunocompromised have specific COVID-19 vaccine recommendations, including recommendations for a booster. Learn more about COVID-19 vaccine recommendations for people who are moderately or severely immunocompromised.
Choosing Your COVID-19 Booster
Three COVID-19 vaccines are authorized or approved for use in the United States to prevent COVID-19. Pfizer-BioNTech or Moderna (COVID-19 mRNA vaccines) are preferred. You may get Johnson & Johnson’s Janssen COVID-19 vaccine in some situations.
Who Can Get a Booster?
CLICK HERE FOR MORE IN DEPTH INFORMATION
What You Should Know
About the Possibility of COVID-19 Illness After Vaccination
Updated Apr. 21, 2021
A small percentage of people fully
vaccinated against COVID-19 will still develop COVID-19 illness
COVID-19 vaccines are effective. However, a small percentage of people
who are fully vaccinated will still get COVID-19 if they are exposed to the virus that causes it.
These are called “vaccine breakthrough cases.” This means that while
people who have been vaccinated are much less likely to get sick, it may still happen.
Experts continue to study how common these cases are.
Large-scale clinical studies found that COVID-19 vaccination prevented
most people from getting COVID-19. Research also provides
growing evidence that mRNA COVID-19 vaccines offer similar protection
in real world conditions. While these vaccines are effective, no vaccine prevents illness
100 percent of the time. For any vaccines, there are breakthrough cases.
With effectiveness of 90 percent or higher, a small percentage of people
who are fully vaccinated against COVID-19 will still get sick and some may
be hospitalized or die from COVID-19. It’s also possible that some
fully vaccinated people might have infections, but not have symptoms (asymptomatic infections).
Other reasons why fully-vaccinated people might get COVID-19
It’s possible a person could be infected just before or just after vaccination
and still get sick. It typically takes about 2 weeks for the body to build protection
after vaccination, so a person could get sick if the vaccine has
not had enough time to provide protection.
New variants of the virus that causes COVID-19 illness are spreading
in the United States. Current data suggest that COVID-19 vaccines
authorized for use in the United States offer protection against most variants
. However, some variants might cause illness in some people after they are fully vaccinated.
If you get COVID-19 after vaccination, your symptoms might be less severe
Even though a small percentage of fully vaccinated people will get sick,
vaccination will protect most people from getting sick.
There also is some evidence that vaccination may make illness less severe
in people who get vaccinated but still get sick. Despite this, some fully vaccinated people will
still be hospitalized and die. However, the overall risk of hospitalization and death
among fully vaccinated people will be much lower than among people with similar
risk factors who are not vaccinated.
CDC is monitoring COVID-19 vaccine breakthrough cases for patterns
CDC is working with state and local health departments
to investigate COVID-19 vaccine breakthrough cases.
The goal is to identify any unusual patterns, such as trends in age or sex,
the vaccines involved, underlying health conditions,
or which of the SARS-CoV-2 viruses made these people sick.
To date, no unusual patterns have been detected in the data CDC has received.
COVID-19 vaccines are an essential tool to
protect people against COVID-19 illness, including against new variants
COVID-19 vaccines help protect people who are vaccinated from
getting COVID-19 or getting severely ill from COVID-19,
including reducing the risk of hospitalization and death.
CDC recommends you get a COVID-19 vaccine as soon as one is available to you.
However, because people can still get sick and possibly spread COVID-19
to others after being fully vaccinated, CDC recommends people continue
to take everyday actions to protect themselves and others,
like wearing a mask, maintaining an appropriate distance
from others, avoiding crowds and poorly ventilated spaces, and washing hands often.
***************************
April 27, 2021
COVID-19 vaccines are effective at protecting you from getting sick. Based on what we know about COVID-19 vaccines, people who have been fully vaccinated can start to do some things that they had stopped doing because of the pandemic.
In indoor public spaces, the vaccination status of other people or whether they are at increased risk for severe COVID-19 is likely unknown. Therefore, fully vaccinated people should continue to wear a mask that fits snugly against the sides of your face and doesn’t have gaps, cover coughs and sneezes, wash hands often, and follow any applicable workplace or school guidance.
These recommendations can help you make decisions about daily activities after you are fully vaccinated. They are not intended for healthcare settings.
Have You Been Fully Vaccinated?
In general, people are considered fully vaccinated: ±
- 2 weeks after their second dose in a 2-dose series, such as the Pfizer or Moderna vaccines, or
- 2 weeks after a single-dose vaccine, such as Johnson & Johnson’s Janssen vaccine
If you don’t meet these requirements, you are NOT fully vaccinated. Keep taking all precautions until you are fully vaccinated.
If you have a condition or are taking medications that weaken your immune system, you may NOT be fully protected even if you are fully vaccinated. Talk to your healthcare provider. Even after vaccination, you may need to continue taking all precautions.
What You Can Start to Do
If you’ve been fully vaccinated:
- You can gather indoors with fully vaccinated people without wearing a mask or staying 6 feet apart.
- You can gather indoors with unvaccinated people of any age from one other
- household (for example, visiting with relatives who all live together) without
- masks or staying 6 feet apart, unless any of those people or anyone they live
- with has an increased risk for severe illness from COVID-19.
- You can gather or conduct activities outdoors without wearing a mask except
- in certain crowded settings and venues.
- If you travel in the United States, you do not need to get tested before or after
- travel or self-quarantine after travel.
- You need to pay close attention to the situation at your international destination
- before traveling outside the United States.
- You do NOT need to get tested before leaving the United States unless
- your destination requires it.
- You still need to show a negative test result or documentation of recovery
- from COVID-19 before boarding an international flight to the United States.
- You should still get tested 3-5 days after international travel.
- You do NOT need to self-quarantine after arriving in the United States.
- If you’ve been around someone who has COVID-19, you do not need to stay away
- from others or get tested unless you have symptoms.
- However, if you live in a group setting (like a correctional or detention
- facility or group home) and are around someone who has COVID-19,
- you should still stay away from others for 14 days and get tested, even if you don’t have symptoms.
What You Should Keep Doing
For now, if you’ve been fully vaccinated:
- You should still protect yourself and others in many situations by wearing a mask
- that fits snugly against the sides of your face and doesn’t have gaps.
- Take this precaution whenever you are:
- In indoor public settings
- Gathering indoors with unvaccinated people (including children)
- from more than one other household
- Visiting indoors with an unvaccinated person who
- is at increased risk of severe illness or death from COVID-19 or
- who lives with a person at increased risk
- You should still avoid indoor large gatherings.
- If you travel, you should still take steps to protect yourself and others.
- You will still be required to wear a mask on planes, buses, trains, and other
- forms of public transportation traveling into, within, or out of the United States,
- and in U.S. transportation hubs such as airports and stations. Fully vaccinated
- international travelers arriving in the United States are still required to get tested
- within 3 days of their flight (or show documentation of recovery from COVID-19
- in the past 3 months) and should still get tested 3-5 days after their trip.
- You should still watch out for symptoms of COVID-19, especially
- if you’ve been around someone who is sick. If you have symptoms of COVID-19,
- you should get tested and stay home and away from others.
- You will still need to follow guidance at your workplace.
- People who have a condition or are taking medications that weaken the immune system,
- should talk to their healthcare provider to discuss their activities.
- They may need to keep taking all precautions to prevent COVID-19.
What We Know
- COVID-19 vaccines are effective at preventing COVID-19 disease, especially severe illness and death.
- Other prevention steps help stop the spread of COVID-19, and that these steps are still important, even as vaccines are being distributed.
What We’re Still Learning
- How effective the vaccines are against variants of the virus that causes COVID-19.
- Early data show the vaccines may work against some variants but could be less effective against others.
- How well the vaccines protect people with weakened immune systems, including people who take immunosuppressive medications.
- How well COVID-19 vaccines keep people from spreading the disease.
- Early data show that the vaccines may help keep people from spreading COVID-19,
- but we are learning more as more people get vaccinated.
- How long COVID-19 vaccines can protect people.
As we know more, CDC will continue to update our recommendations for both vaccinated
and unvaccinated people. Until we know more about those questions, everyone—
even people who’ve had their vaccines—should continue
taking steps to protect themselves and others when recommended.
Want to learn more about these recommendations?
Read our expanded Interim Public Health Recommendations for Fully Vaccinated People.
New Daily U.S. Coronavirus Cases Jump
Nearly 20%, Hitting Almost 122,000
SCOTT NEUMAN · NOVEMBER 6, 2020
The U.S. recorded nearly 122,000 new daily coronavirus cases in data released Friday, a sharp uptick over the previous day that saw the country’s first six-figure increase since the start of the pandemic.
According to Johns Hopkins University, 121,888 new confirmed cases were added to the count on Thursday, which now totals more than 9.6 million since the first case was diagnosed in the U.S. in January. On the same day, another 1,210 COVID-19 deaths were recorded. Almost 235,000 Americans have died from COVID-19 since January.
The dramatic rise in cases in recent weeks is part of the latest wave of infections sweeping through the Midwest and Northeast, where hospitalizations have also spiked. More than 53,000 people nationwide were being treated in hospitals for COVID-19 as of Thursday – a figure not seen since early August, according to the COVID Tracking Project.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said earlier this week that the average number of daily cases had increased 20% over a seven-day period and that cases had increased in 79% of U.S. jurisdictions.
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In the count released Friday, Illinois had nearly 10,000 new cases, Michigan almost 7,000, and Iowa more than 5,000. Ohio and Indiana reported more than 4,000 new diagnoses. Minnesota was at just under 4,000.
In Illinois, Gov. J.B. Pritzker warned that the surge in new infections in the state could presage a return to tighter public health measures.
“If the current trajectory continues, if our hospitals continue to fill up, if more and more people continue to lose their lives to this disease, we’re going to implement further statewide mitigations, which nobody, and I mean nobody, wants,” he said at a daily pandemic briefing on Thursday.
The rise in cases nationwide in recent weeks has tracked with the final days of the election campaign, seen in large part as a referendum on President Trump’s handling of the pandemic.
Trump has repeatedly sought to downplay the seriousness of the disease and to discredit his scientific advisors. In the final days of the campaign, he suggested that he might fire the nation’s top infectious disease expert, Dr. Anthony Fauci, who in June predicted that 100,000 cases a day were possible if actions to mitigate the spread of the virus were not ramped up.
Although the U.S. accounts for the largest number of infections, the rest of the world is also grappling with spikes in cases. Much of Europe has seen renewed restrictions aimed at tamping down the virus, with the U.K., Germany, Greece and Poland all ordering new lockdowns.
Meanwhile, the World Health Organization said Friday that Denmark — which has reported an outbreak of a coronavirus mutation in mink farms — was taking steps to prevent “a new animal reservoir” for the pathogen.
Speaking in Geneva, Mike Ryan, WHO’s top emergencies expert, said that pigs and poultry were also being placed under “very strict” biosecurity in Denmark to prevent coronavirus from jumping the species barrier.
Copyright 2020 NPR. To see more, visit NPR.
CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC!

Microscopic view of Coronavirus, a pathogen that attacks the respiratory tract. Analysis and test, experimentation. Sars. 3d render
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Scientists say lack of alarm among young people could hinder the fight against the virus and endanger elders
Scientists and government officials fighting the coronavirus epidemic say they have a problem: Carefree youths.
As authorities moved to restrict social gatherings last week, bars and restaurants from New York to Berlin filled up with revelers, illegal “lockdown parties” popped up in France and Belgium, and campuses in the U.S. lit up for end-of-the-world dorm parties.
So far, most young Covid-19 patients have experienced mild or no symptoms from the virus, while more severe cases are concentrated among those aged 50 and over. Data released last week by the National Health Institute in Italy, currently the world’s worst-hit country, shows mortality rates starting at 0% for patients aged 0 to 29 and edging up to peak at 19% for those over 90.
Yet scientists say tests have shown children and young adults are no less likely than older people to get infected and transmit the virus. Epidemiologists are growing concerned that the millennial pushback against social-distancing measures—and an emerging generational divide about how the disease is perceived—could undo all efforts to slow the spread of the virus and put vulnerable people at high risk.
President Trump on Monday stressed that young people can spread the virus even if they only have mild symptoms and recommended that Americans avoid restaurants and gatherings of more than 10 people. French President Emmanuel Macron went further, announcing a nationwide lockdown and punishment for those who violate the rules.
So far, the young don’t seem to be listening.
After social media became filled with reports of packed bars and restaurants in New York, 30-year-old Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D., N.Y.) tweeted to her millions of followers on Saturday.
“To everyone in NYC but ESPECIALLY healthy people & people under 40, (bc from what I’m observing that’s who needs to hear this again), PLEASE stop crowding bars, restaurants, and public spaces right now. Eat your meals at home.”
After Princeton University said last week it would move classroom instruction on-line on March 19 and send most of its students home, the campus saw an explosion in gatherings and parties, according to students and staff.
“People were not ready to give up their lifestyle without one last hurrah,” said Ben Weissenbach, a Princeton undergraduate English major who was critical of the partying. “At a really privileged place like Princeton, we don’t tend to even consider the possibility that our bubble could be popped.”
In an email to all students on Friday, the university announced stricter measures and penalties for offenders, saying “we are disheartened to see that so many students are failing to heed these protective measures and engaging in disruptive behavior.”
In a display of juvenile gallows humor, the hashtag #BoomerRemover, a nickname for the novel coronavirus, briefly trended on Twitter last weekend.
Across Europe, where social life is shutting down faster than in the U.S., a divide is spreading between the young, many of whom say they don’t fear the virus, and their elders, including politicians and scientists, whose alarm about the illness is growing by the day.
In Berlin, a European clubbing hot spot, authorities ordered the closure of all bars and clubs on Saturday. Yet many establishments ignored the decree, forcing police to forcibly shut down some 63 establishments across the city.
That night, the Ernst basement bar in the trendy district of Kreuzberg was packed with patrons enjoying loud electronica. “Beware: Coronavirus” was sprayed on a bench near the entrance.
Inside the stylish Wagemut cocktail bar, a young woman pretended to sneeze in someone’s face, unleashing thunderous laughter.
On Sunday, Berlin health officials said 42 people were thought to have infected themselves in Berlin clubs. Some of those were club-hopping, spreading the virus as they went.
“This is the attitude of people who are part of this nightlife,” said Lutz Leichsenring, a director of the association of Berlin club owners. “So what? You get the flu, you’re not going to die.”
Last week, German Chancellor Angela Merkel herself, in her first press conference on the epidemic, urged young people to respect the new social restrictions for their grandparents’ sake.
Despite the pointed fingers and occasional excesses, many young people bristle at the accusation of selfishness, saying the new social constraints are disproportionate and unfairly target their generation.
“They’re preventing us from living,” said Timothée Thierry, a 30-year-old statistician at France’s health ministry. He spoke on Sunday, after the government shut down bars but before it locked down the entire country.
In Italy, which has been on lockdown for days, young people, especially students, face a choice between returning to their parents’ homes or remaining cooped up in small apartments, desperate for a social outlet.
One student in the Piedmont region of northwestern Italy said she sneaked out of her apartment to attend a dinner party because she was feeling depressed from days of isolation. The party was only a 10-minute walk away. Once there she joined four other people, drinking wine and eating around the dinner table.
Just before midnight, the police knocked on the door and asked for the identification cards and phone numbers of everyone in the group. They ordered the revelers to return home, warning them that their information was being kept on file. Each person was subject to a hefty fine or jail-time for attending the party, the police said, according to the student.
Some say they are less frustrated by the prospect of extreme confinement than they are doubtful it could ever work in the West, which prizes individualism and freedom.
“If I get sick, I will spend some days at home to avoid spreading it to others,” said Monica Rubio, 19, who was having a late breakfast with three friends late last week in Barcelona, Spain, one of Europe’s most heavily affected countries.
“Otherwise I won’t change my life because of it. I can’t imagine people would stop shaking hands, kissing or hugging. It is deeply entrenched in our society.”
In Asia, there have been fewer complaints from authorities about younger people flouting social-distancing rules, but with the epicenter of the pandemic now shifting to Europe, the sense of urgency, palpable at the peak of the Chinese epidemic, has begun to recede in the East.
Mong Kok, a busy shopping hub in Hong Kong’s Kowloon district, has been noticeably busier than in previous weeks, with many young people tentatively returning to their pre-coronavirus weekend routines. Despite the greater crowds, many youthful bystanders still wear surgical masks and keep hand sanitizer close to hand, even attached to rucksacks.
“I think it’s quite boring staying inside. Teens and young people you see, they’re stuck at home and out of the office. It’s quite hard,” said Hailey Cheng, 27, as a street performer tried to fire up a lackluster audience nearby.
On a recent night in the semiautonomous city, Peel Street, a thoroughfare lined with bars and popular with expats, thronged with hundreds of maskless drinkers. A band played in the lower half of the street, where people stood shoulder to shoulder.
“I stayed at home for two months. I’m not staying any more,” said Ryan, 26, who was walking with his friends down the main strip of nearby Lan Kwai Fong, a series of streets filled with bars and clubs. “Life goes on.”
“We worry,” said Nicole, 25. “But either you worry yourself to death or you drink yourself to death.”
William Boston and Mike Bird contributed to this article.
Write to Bojan Pancevski at bojan.pancevski@wsj.com and Stacy Meichtrystacy.meichtry@wsj.com
PUBLIC HEALTH
The country has the second-oldest population on Earth. Its young tend to mingle more often with elderly loved ones.
With the world descending deeper and deeper into coronavirus chaos, we all face unnerving unknowns: How long we’ll have to remain in isolation; when the pandemic will peak; the depths to which the stock market will tumble. But what’s abundantly clear is that this novel disease is most deadly for the elderly. The young may not present any symptoms at all, and this is especially dangerous to their elders, because they can pass the virus on to them without realizing it.
Italy has been hit particularly hard, with some 2,000 deaths thus far. Overwhelmed hospital staffers have had to make devastating decisions about who to treat and who they must let perish. The reason why Italy is suffering so badly, write University of Oxford researchers in a new paper in the journal Demographic Science, may be twofold: The country has the second-oldest population on Earth, and its young tend to mingle more often with the elderly, like their grandparents. Such demographic research will be critical in facing down the threat elsewhere, as more countries grapple with a deadly pandemic that’s just getting started and learn more about how the virus is transmitted within families and communities.
In Italy, 23 percent of the population is over age 65, compared to the US, where that population is 16 percent. “Extended longevity has played some role in changing the population structure,” says University of Oxford demographer and epidemiologist Jennifer Beam Dowd, lead author of the new paper. “But it actually has most to do with how rapid the decline in fertility has been in a population.” That is, it’s affected more by Italians having having fewer children than it is by them living longer.
At the same time, young Italians tend to interact a lot with their elders. Dowd’s Italian coauthors note that young folks might live with their parents and grandparents in rural areas, but commute to work in cities like Milan. Data on the composition of Italian households bears out this familial arrangement, too.
The study’s authors argue that this frequent travel between cities and family homes may have exacerbated the “silent” spread of the novel coronavirus. Young people working and socializing in urban areas interact with large crowds, where they may pick up the disease and take it home. If they have no symptoms, they’ll have no clue that they’re infecting their elders, the most vulnerable population.
“We know now that the mortality is higher in older individuals, but what’s not clear yet is: Why?” asks Carlos Del Rio, executive associate dean of the Emory School of Medicine at Grady Health System, who wasn’t involved in this research. For example, it could be a matter of older people having weaker respiratory systems, which could also lead to a higher mortality rate among seniors for diseases like pneumonia.
Other researchers studying why children don’t seem to get that sick from Covid-19 have pointed out the corollary: Kids tend to have “pristine” lungs that have not already been damaged by a lifetime of inflammation caused by allergies, pollutants, and diseases. This might make them more resistant to attack by the new virus.
Despite a full lockdown in place in Italy since the weekend, the virus has already spread far and wide. But with this kind of demographic knowledge, public health officials can better confront the threat elsewhere, Dowd says. “One of the points that we were trying to make is that it’s not necessarily just about isolating the older population—we are identifying that they’re the most vulnerable—but the general social distancing that’s being encouraged to flatten the curve,” says Dowd. Flattening the curve means slowing the rate of new infections, buying researchers time to develop treatments and vaccines, and giving hospitals some respite. “I think our point was that’s actually more important, when you have a higher fraction of your population that is vulnerable,” she says.
But while separating younger and older people might work in theory, it can create practical problems. For example, desperate to flatten the curve, local officials in the US are closing schools. If parents can’t look after their children—because they’re still working out of the home, or because they’re ill themselves—that care might fall on grandparents.
To complicate matters even further, a study in Italy doesn’t exactly track with what we might expect in a massive country like the US, where the demographics vary greatly from place to place. Some cities might have far more young people than seniors, and some suburbs are likely just the opposite. Or think about Florida and its masses of retirees. “Florida is like an uber-Italy,” says Andrew Noymer, a demographer at the University of California, Irvine, who wasn’t involved in this research. “Florida is going to be a tough situation, I would predict.”
In a place with so many elderly people, many of them living close together in retirement homes, social distancing will be extra important to avoid disaster. “It’s not destiny to say Florida is going to be absolutely clobbered by this,” Noymer says. “There is time with social distancing to flatten the peak. Maybe we can make this the dog that didn’t bark, so to speak.”
An aging population doesn’t have to mean a devastating Covid-19 outbreak. In Japan, where over 28 percent of the population is over age 65, by March 16 there had been only 814 confirmed cases and 24 deaths, compared with Italy’s 24,747 cases and 1,809 deaths, according to WHO figures. Japan, along with neighbors including Hong Kong and Singapore, had rapidly ramped up testing in the early days of the outbreak and instituted strict travel controls.
But Dowd says we can use Italy’s example to take practical steps in fighting the pandemic. We might pinpoint areas with older populations, and try “to anticipate a little bit where the burden of care is going to be the most severe.”
After a long delay in the rollout of mass testing in the US, on Friday the FDA approved the use of two commercial coronavirus tests. This may help Americans keep infected young people and healthy elders apart. In the meantime, if you want to check in with your grandparents, do it by phone.
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Fauci Urges Americans to Stay Home Amid Coronavirus
Dr. Anthony Fauci says people should ‘hunker down’ and added that the nation’s ability to test people exhibiting symptoms is improving
WASHINGTON—The federal government’s leading voice on infectious diseases said Americans will need to do much more to prevent community spread of the novel coronavirus, urging them to stay home and avoid unnecessary public outings.
“Americans should be prepared that they are going to have to hunker down significantly more than we as a country are doing,” Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said on NBC’s “Meet the Press.”
Dr. Fauci, appearing on several Sunday morning television shows, said communities that are already seeing the virus spread need to be vigorous in reducing interactions that are part of normal life. He urged people to practice “social distancing” in order to prevent a potentially catastrophic spike in infections. That advice applies to younger people, even though they appear to be less vulnerable to the disease, he said.
“I would like to see a dramatic diminution of the personal interaction that we see in restaurants and in bars,” Dr. Fauci said on CNN’s “State of the Union,” adding that younger people could be endangering the lives of their grandparents or elderly relatives. He also warned that younger Americans aren’t immune from the virus and some could fall seriously ill.
“Everybody’s got to take this seriously, even the young,” he said.
Dr. Fauci said the nation’s ability to test people exhibiting symptoms of the novel coronavirus is improving, while he cautioned that the increase in the availability of testing won’t happen overnight.
“The ultimate goal is to get to a drive-through. Are we going to have it tomorrow? Unlikely. But will we have a much greater availability and implementation of testing in the very, very near future? The answer is yes,” Dr. Fauci said on CNN.
The infectious disease expert said on ABC’s “This Week” that it could be “several weeks to a few months” before life in the U.S. begins to return to normal.
Dr. Fauci played down the notion that domestic travel restrictions would be part of the national mitigation plan, saying they aren’t being seriously discussed at the moment.
“I don’t see that right now or in the immediate future,” Dr. Fauci said on ABC. “But remember, we are very open-minded about whatever it takes to preserve the health of the American public.”
The Trump administration said Saturday it was broadening travel restrictions from Europe to include the U.K. and Ireland, and Vice President Mike Pence said the White House was considering restrictions on domestic travel for areas hardest hit by the coronavirus outbreak.
State and local officials also warned Sunday that the disruption to Americans’ lives will likely continue for months.
Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine, a Republican, said on CNN that he has encouraged doctors, dentists and veterinarians not to perform elective surgeries to conserve medical supplies.
“We’re trying to store this up. We’re trying to get ready. But the most important thing I think we can do, in addition to that, is try to, as they say, flatten this curve and spread this out over a period of time,” he said.
Mr. DeWine, who has closed schools for three weeks in his state, said he wouldn’t be surprised if schools were closed for the remainder of this school year due to the virus.
But New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio, a Democrat, said he was reluctant to shut down schools in his city.
“I’m very reticent to shut down schools for a variety of reasons, not just that that’s where a lot of kids get their only good meals, where they get adult supervision, especially teenagers who otherwise would be out on the streets,” he said. Mr. de Blasio also said closing schools could have health and safety ramifications because many first responders rely on schools so they can work.
Asked whether a government order for restaurants and bars to close was on the table, Mr. de Blasio said “every option is on the table.”
“We’ve never seen anything like this,“ he said. ”We’re going to constantly make new decisions.”
Write to Brent Kendall at brent.kendall@wsj.com and Chad Day at Chad.Day@wsj.com
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WORLD NEWS
MARCH 15, 2020 / 07:51 AM / UPDATED 12 HOURS AGO
Lockdowns and entry bans imposed around the world to fight coronavirus
(Reuters) – France and Spain joined Italy in imposing lockdowns on tens of millions of people, Australia ordered self-isolation of arriving foreigners and other countries extended entry bans as the world sought to contain the spreading coronavirus.
Panic buying in Australia, the United States and Britain saw leaders appeal for calm over the virus that has infected over 156,000 people globally and killed more than 5,800.
Several countries imposed bans on mass gathering, shuttered sporting, cultural and religious events, while medical experts urged people to practice “social distancing” to curb the spread.
Austria’s chancellor urged people to self-isolate and announced bans on gatherings of more than five people and further limits on who can enter the country.
All of Pope Francis’ Easter services next month will be held without the faithful attending, the Vatican said on Sunday, in a step believed to be unprecedented in modern times.
The services, four days of major events from Holy Thursday to Easter Sunday, usually draw tens of thousands of people to sites in Rome and in the Vatican.
Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison said from midnight Sunday international travelers arriving in the country would need to isolate themselves for 14 days, and foreign cruise ships would be banned for 30 days, given a rise in imported cases.
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‘We’re basing this on science’:
Ohio emerges as leader in U.S. coronavirus response
10:57 am EDT Mar. 14, 2020
COLUMBUS, Ohio – Students won’t be in classrooms next week. Prominent sports events from March Madness to the Masters have been canceled or postponed. Churches and synagogues are live streaming services.
Life as we know it has changed in America.
And it’s changed, in large part, because of Ohio.
The Midwestern state has been leading the nation’s response to COVID-19, the infectious disease caused by the novel coronavirus.
While President Donald Trump was slow to shut down public events, including the Republican’s own campaign rallies, Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine’s administration imposed the nation’s most restrictive ban on large gatherings. He then closed all schools for at least three weeks.
DeWine made those decisions before anyone died of COVID-19 in Ohio and with just a handful of confirmed cases concentrated in the northeastern part of the state.
Those decisions earned DeWine the ire of sports fans, frustrated parents and those who claimed coronavirus was a media-manufactured crisis. But they earned him praise from unlikely sources, Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown and Ohio Democratic Party Chairman David Pepper, who ran against DeWine for state attorney general in 2014.
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“The approaches by DeWine and POTUS could not be more starkly different,” Pepper wrote on Twitter.
“This is certainly no ordinary time,” DeWine said Monday, when the state’s first three cases of coronavirus were confirmed. “It is important for us to take aggressive action to protect Ohioans. The actions that we take now will, in fact, save lives. That we are sure of.”
Ready to lead
On Monday, DeWine, 73, was running over an hour late to a news conference about a mental health pilot program. When he finally took the podium, he was flanked by Lt. Gov. Jon Husted and Ohio Department of Health Director Dr. Amy Acton in a crisp, white lab coat.
Three Ohioans had just tested positive for COVID-19.
Now, coronavirus wasn’t a problem for far-off Wuhan, China or even Washington state. It was an Ohio problem.
DeWine and Acton had been preparing for this moment for weeks – meeting with medical professionals, sounding the alarm at public appearances and studying Italy’s disastrous response.
In some ways, DeWine has been preparing for this moment for much longer. Acton was the last cabinet member DeWine selected in 2019, wanting to make sure he had “the right person.”
Before Acton, the state health department had been led by two directors who were not medical doctors. DeWine thought it was important to change that.
Acton, 54, earned her medical degree from Northeastern Ohio University, completed her internship and residency and then earned a master’s degree in public health. She spent seven years teaching global public health at Ohio State University.
In daily press briefings, Acton is DeWine’s explainer-in-chief. But, perhaps drawing on her days in the classroom, she does so with clarity and empathy, often sharing her own feelings and personal prevention steps.
Sports: Cancellations as coronavirus continues to spread
She’s explained complex health concepts with analogies: Swiss cheese, stars in space, extinguishing a fire on your stovetop. Friday’s public briefing included a short history lesson on planning for pandemics ranging from the Spanish flu to H1N1 in 2009.
“On the front end of a pandemic, you look a little bit like an alarmist. You look a little bit like a Chicken Little – the sky is falling,” Acton said. “On the back end of the pandemic, you didn’t do enough.”
For casual observers, it might seem DeWine is doing too much. But the state’s multi-step response – an expert panel, a statewide summit, ample media accessibility – is how he approaches big issues such as human trafficking and opioid abuse.
As a lifelong politician, DeWine has cultivated relationships with reporters across the state.
And he is no stranger to worldwide media firestorms.
In August, DeWine consoled a crowd of frustrated, grieving people yelling “Do Something” in Dayton after a mass shooting in the city’s Oregon District. He was in the spotlight as the state’s top cop when eight people from one family were killed in southern Ohio.
Advance prep
Ohio’s preparation for the novel coronavirus didn’t start this week.
In early February, two Miami University students who had visited China tested negative for coronavirus. Acton conveyed a cautionary message then: the risk is to those who have traveled abroad. She advised people who had traveled and felt ill to call their doctor.
In late February, Acton traveled to Washington, D.C. to meet with health officials from other states, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the White House. By that point, Acton and DeWine were talking daily, sometimes multiple times a day.
Their message morphed into a guide to coronavirus symptoms – fever, cough, shortness of breath. Acton described the coronavirus as flu-like – many people will have it and just feel sick for a little while but some will need hospitalization.
Much was still unknown, the pair said at a Feb. 27 news conference in Cleveland, but they made a big promise that day: “We will communicate what we know when we know it.”
Soon after, DeWine convened a panel of 15 medical professionals including leaders from the state’s major hospitals. Now, the 31st floor of the Riffe Center, where the governor has his office, has transformed into a “war room,” with twice-daily conference calls with his panel and calls to a public-health expert in Boston to assess the pandemic and its threat.
As DeWine rolls out bans and closures and orders he notes that they are based on the advice of experts. The experts have been telling him the virus is here, but we’re not seeing it because there hasn’t been enough testing.
The aggressive measures are an attempt to slow the spread and reduce a big spike in infections that could overload the health care system, a concept professionals call “flattening the curve” that Acton revisits at each briefing.
“Mistakes that I have made throughout my career have generally been because I didn’t have enough facts, I didn’t dig deep enough,” DeWine said. “So, I made up my mind I was going to have the best information, the best data available.”
DeWine knows that other governors are watching what Ohio does. In today’s media environment, Kentucky or Indiana’s leaders might know Ohio’s actions within 30 seconds.
He doesn’t mind explaining why Ohio is taking these dramatic steps. He took a couple of national media interviews at the end of the week to break it down.
But really, the reasons are simple, he said: “We’re basing this on science.”
Contributing: The Columbus Dispatch. Follow Jessie Balmert and Jackie Borchardt on Twitter: @jbalmert and @JMBorchardt.
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