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MINUTES TO POST…ROAD TO THE TRIPLE CROWN-THE KENTUCKY DERBY!

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THE 146TH KENTUCKY DERBY

Fans Permitted to Attend 2020 Kentucky Derby September at Churchill Downs | America's Best Racing

Kentucky Derby 2020: Predictions, Picks, Contenders and Odds

 

Jerry & Suzee Bailey

It’s Post Time!

Join our COFFEEBREAKWITHFRIENDS

“Table of Discussion,” with

 Kentucky Derby, Preakness,

and Belmont Stakes Winner,

(plus 15 BC wins, including 5 Classics!) 

Jerry Bailey, who will share his tips and professional

 information on the Kentucky Oaks and Derby.

 Changes in scheduling now have “THE RUN FOR THE ROSES”

 as the second leg of the Triple Crown,

and  in September rather than on the first Saturday in May,

But the thrill and excitement will not be changed! 

And don’t forget to share your favorite picks or questions for the Derby

in the comment area below…

or visit Jerry or Suzee on Twitter or Facebook!

http://@jerrydbailey

@suzeebailey

Coffeebreakwithfriends  

or e-mail us at:

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We look forward to hearing from you!

Kentucky Derby:

Tiz the Law tries to impose order in year of chaos

Marty McGeeSep 03, 2020

 

Tiz the Law trains at Churchill on Sept. 2

Barbara D. LivingstonTiz the Law trains at Churchill Downs on Wednesday.

If he wins the Kentucky Derby on Saturday, he would go on to Pimlico for the Preakness and a shot at the Triple Crown.

LOUISVILLE, Ky. – It’s finally here, although not as we know it. The Kentucky Derby will be run for the 146th time Saturday at historic Churchill Downs, its shape and form tainted by a four-month postponement, an ongoing coronavirus pandemic, widespread social unrest, and the disappointment of tens of thousands of would-be revelers being told not to bother coming.

Indeed, this will be a Run for the Roses unlike any before – while also being one to harken back to the greats of the game. Equine legends such as Spectacular Bid (1979) and Seattle Slew (1977) were the most recent odds-on choices to win the Derby, and a heavy favorite with an unprecedented record for a Derby starter will be looking to pull through for the multitudes of offtrack bettors punching his number into their advanced-deposit wagering accounts.

Tiz the Law, a New York-bred, is the 3-5 morning-line favorite in a field of 17 in a Derby that will be run at 1 1/4 miles before a mostly empty grandstand and clubhouse. The colt’s emphatic victories in the June 20 Belmont Stakes and Aug. 8 Runhappy Travers in this skewed season are the main reasons he’ll be the first odds-on Derby favorite since Arazi faded to eighth at 9-10 in the 1992 running. Victory at a short mutuel would place Tiz the Law on threshold of becoming racing’s 14th Triple Crown winner, with only the Oct. 3 Preakness at Pimlico left to go.

 

Barclay Tagg trains Tiz the Law, a bay Constitution colt with a flashy blaze, for the Sackatoga Stable of Jack Knowlton and partners. The team is familiar with Derby delirium, having won the 2003 running with the New York-bred gelding Funny Cide. They’re confident of winning a second one, if only Tiz the Law keeps performing as he has.

 

Tiz the Law has used a stalking style to great effectiveness, rating patiently for jockey Manny Franco before putting his dazzling speed on display. Tagg is hoping for something similar once the Derby gates open shortly after 7 p.m. Eastern on Saturday.

“This horse just does what you ask him to do,” he said. “He’s strong and he’s on the muscle right now.”

A win by Tiz the Law would make Tagg, 82, the oldest trainer to win a Derby. Art Sherman was 77 when California Chrome won in 2014.

 

Tiz the Law and Franco will break from post 17 and be surrounded by the other two program favorites, Honor A. P. (post 16, 5-1) and the speedy Authentic (post 18, 8-1), both in from California. Only one other from the 14 runners inside of the favorites is listed as low as 15-1. That is another California horse, Thousand Words (post 10), who with Authentic will be looking to land their Hall of Fame conditioner, Bob Baffert, into a tie for most Derby wins by a trainer (six) with the great Ben Jones. All others in the Derby field are 20-1 or higher on the morning line, including eight 50-1 shots, none of whom seem to have much chance to win.

The trail to this Derby has been long and eventful. As the trainer of red-hot prospects Nadal and Charlatan, Baffert actually stood the best chance to win Derby 146 if it had been run on its original May 2 date, but both of those colts eventually were sidelined by injury. As the spring and summer unfolded and Tiz the Law strengthened his grip on the top spot of the 3-year-old division, a number of would-be challengers also emerged, most notably Art Collector, but he, too, was declared from contention earlier this week with a minor injury.

Unfortunately, an 11th-hour defection came Thursday afternoon when King Guillermo, owned by retired Major League Baseball slugger Victor Martinez, was scratched. Trainer Juan Carlos Avila said during the morning that the colt had come up with “a little problem” and later announced on Twitter that King Guillermo was being withdrawn after developing a fever on Wednesday afternoon. Avila indicated that the Preakness Stakes on Oct. 3, which this year falls as the final leg of the Triple Crown, is under consideration if the colt recovers swiftly.

Meanwhile, Baffert is looking for Authentic to show his customary quicks under John Velazquez after being the last horse loaded into a new, custom-made 20-stall starting gate that Churchill acquired to render obsolete its former two-gate system. Both the extreme inside and outside gates will be left empty, with the 17 starters loading in between. With King Guillermo’s late scratch, gates 1, 2, and 20 will be left empty.

Authentic held on for a narrow win in the July 18 Haskell at Monmouth Park over Ny Traffic in the final Derby prep for both colts. Both maintained steady breeze schedules prior to arriving here early this week from opposite coasts.

“I’ve really seen a big difference in Authentic since his Haskell win,” Baffert said. “He’s maturing now. He shipped a lot better than he did going to the Haskell. He’s probably my best chance, but he is going to have to break well from that post.”

 

Thousand Words slumped badly in the spring before rounding back to form, winning his final prep in a mild upset of Honor A. P. in the Shared Belief five weeks ago at Del Mar.

“He’s steady, and the mile and a quarter is not going to be a problem,” Baffert said.

“I don’t feel like this is my Derby to lose. I can win it, but things have to go right. And that’s what the Derby is all about. You’ve got to have a lot of luck.”

It is Honor A. P. who is being given the best chance to keep Tiz the Law from a Triple Crown bid. The Honor Code colt is represented by the team of trainer John Shirreffs and jockey Mike Smith, who teamed to win the 2005 Derby with 50-1 shot Giacomo.

“He’s really coming into this very well,” Shirreffs said. “I’m very happy with him.”

 

Honor A. P. came to full prominence by winning the 1 1/8-mile Santa Anita Derby on June 6. His midpack style may have been compromised by the small field and shorter 1 1/16-mile distance of the Shared Belief, and Shirreffs is hoping swift early fractions in the Derby will play into Smith’s hands.

Among the longshots, maybe Max Player, Major Fed, or Attachment Rate could help blow up the exotics. All have shown a willingness to close late, especially if the pace gets too hot.

The purse for the Grade 1 Kentucky Derby is $3 million. This is the first time since 2003 that fewer than the 20-horse maximum was entered.

With spectators barred because of the pandemic, maybe a few thousand people still will be on hand Saturday instead of the usual 150,000 or so, with owners, trainers, track employees, invited media, and other “essential personnel” admitted. They’re likely to see protesters outside the track gates following promises by various social-justice leaders to demonstrate.

The Derby is carded as the last of 14 Saturday races. First post is set for 11 a.m. Eastern, with the Derby scheduled for 7:01 p.m. NBC will provide extensive television coverage starting at 2:30.

–additional reporting by Nicole Russo

Kentucky Derby:

Art Collector out with minor foot ailment

Marty McGeeSep 01, 2020

 

Art Collector trains at Churchill Downs on Aug. 28

Coady PhotographyArt Collector likely would have been the second betting choice in the Kentucky Derby.

LOUISVILLE, Ky. – Art Collector, the likely second wagering choice Saturday in the 146th Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs, is out after suffering a minor foot ailment.

The bombshell of bad news spread quickly Tuesday morning at Churchill and beyond, shortly after Art Collector did not appear on the track. A subsequent Churchill release said trainer Tommy Drury reported “the colt nicked the bulb of his left front heel with a hind hoof while galloping Monday at Churchill” and that because of strict medication rules, the horse could not be treated with an anti-inflammatory so close to the race.

Art Collector, bred and owned by Bruce Lunsford, had won all four of his races this year by open lengths, including the Blue Grass Stakes and Runhappy Ellis Park Derby.

Drury said the injury is very minor and that he will be able to point Art Collector to the Oct. 3 Preakness at Pimlico. The colt left Churchill already has returned to Drury’s main base at the Skylight training center just east of Louisville.

“He grabbed himself yesterday morning training,” said Drury. “It was still very sensitive this morning. When I took my thumbs to palpate the bulbs of his heels, you could still tell it was pinching him. I had to make a choice. Your horse has to always come first. To run in a race of this caliber and trying to compete against the best 3-year-olds in this country, you’ve got to be 110 percent. To me, it wouldn’t have been fair to Art Collector, even though it’s slight, knowing that there’s an issue of any kind.

***************************

Kentucky Derby:

King Guillermo will scratch after spiking a fever

Nicole RussoSep 03, 2020

King Guillermo at Tampa Bay Downs

Tom KeyserIf King Guillermo recovers quickly, the Oct. 3 Preakness is a possible next start.

King Guillermo will be scratched from Saturday’s Kentucky Derby after developing a fever on Wednesday afternoon, his trainer, Juan Carlos Avila, said on Thursday.

King Guillermo turned in a regular gallop on Wednesday morning, but did not train on Thursday morning. Avila said that the colt had developed “a little problem” and would be thoroughly examined by a veterinarian. He posted on his Twitter account just after 4:30 p.m. on Thursday that the colt would indeed need to withdraw from the race.

“Unfortunately, we will not be at the Kentucky Derby this Saturday,” Avila wrote in a translated tweet. “A fever yesterday afternoon took us away from this great dream. [The first priority] is the health of our King Guillermo, who will be ready to show that he is one of the best in the country sooner rather than later.”

 

Avila indicated that the Preakness Stakes on Oct. 3, which this year falls as the final leg of the Triple Crown, is under consideration if the colt recovers swiftly.

King Guillermo was 20-1 on the morning line for the Kentucky Derby after winning the Grade 2 Tampa Bay Derby in March and finishing second in a division of the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby on May 2 in his final prep. The colt, who is owned by retired Major League Baseball player Victor Martinez, was to have been ridden by Samy Camacho in the Derby. Both Avila and Camacho were participating in the Derby for the first time.

King Guillermo’s scratch will leave a field of 17 for the Kentucky Derby. The colt had drawn Post 6. With his withdrawal, posts 1, 2, and 20 will be left empty in the new 20-stall starting gate.

Kentucky Derby and Oaks Preview

Jerry’s top Choices!

           

Kentucky Oaks 146: Post positions and odds

THE OAKS

To me this is all about three fillies. Gamine, Swiss Skydiver and Speech.

Gamine Blows Field Away Upon Debut - BloodHorse

1- GAMINE

She has clearly been the fastest of all the fillies(and the colts for that matter) using her brilliant speed to open up insurmountable leads and hasn’t been challenged much in her last two wins by a combined total of 25 lengths but both of those races were at considerably shorter distances so the question is can she be as effective at this longer distance of a mile and an eighth?

Filly Swiss Skydiver headlines 13 entered for Blue Grass

2-SWISS SKYDIVER 

LIke Gamine she has plenty of early speed but unlike Gamine she has the ability to settle just off the early pace if necessary and win doing it. The distance is no problem for her and if she can be close enough to Gamine turning for home think she will win

Ashland results: Speech wins in record time, looks ahead to Kentucky Oaks

3- SPEECH

Has come the closest to beating Gamine this spring when coming within a head at Oaklawn park earlier this spring. Since then she was beaten by Swiss Skydiver in California but bounced back to win the Ashland in Lexington very impressively.

 

 

 

************************************************************************************************************************************************

Kentucky Derby and Oaks post positions set       

THE DERBY

Tiz the Law - 2020 - The Runhappy Travers - YouTube

1-TIZ THE LAW

He’s the 3/5 morning line favorite and deservedly so. He’s won more races, more money, and run considerably faster than any other horse in the race. Tactically he has no weaknesses because be breaks fast from the gate, has tactical speed to get a good early stalking position and he has a high cruising speed. Lifetime he has won six of his 7seven races but the only defeat came here at Churchill Downs last fall when he was third. That race was on a muddy track and with the weather forecasted to be sunny and 80, he should get the fast track we know he likes.

Kentucky Derby 2019 Radar: Honor A. P. justifies the hype

2-HONOR AP

Is the clear second choice in this race. His record of two wins in five starts doesn’t sound that impressive but he’s the second fastest horse behind Tiz the Law and he’s bred to like this longer distance.

Authentic proves the real deal in San Felipe Stakes win

3-AUTHENTIC

Trained by Bob Baffert he is most likely the controlling speed of the race and is four for five lifetime. The biggest question with him is the distance. His last win was in the Haskell stakes at Monmouth at one mile and an eighth and after leading the entire race he was life and death to hang on by a nose so the extra eighth of a mile is a concern.

Ny Traffic | America's Best Racing

4-NY TRAFFIC

 My fourth choice in the race. He’s been second in his last three races but the most recent was a fast closing miss to Authentic in the Haskell. He has tactical speed and shouldn’t have to contend with much “Kentucky traffic” in terms of horses in this race.

2020 Kentucky Derby Pace Thesis & Picks | Thoroughbred Racing Dudes

 

Suzee’s Top Choices 

THE OAKS

1-SWISS SKY DIVER

2-GAMINE

3-SPEECH

TEMPERS RISING – PANDEMIC LONGSHOT 😉

THE DERBY

1-TIZ THE LAW

2-HONOR AP

3-SOLE VOLANTE

LONG SHOT – SOUTH BEND -MOTT TRAINED-AND IT’S COLLEGE FOOTBALL SEASON😉

 

 

 

 

 

 

*****************************************************************

Mint Juleps, at Belmont Park? The Mile and a half Belmont Stakes is now the First leg of the Triple Crown???  Oh no…it’s no longer a mile and a half, it’s now a mile and an eighth???  So let’s get this straight…the Belmont Stakes has now gone from being the longest leg of the Triple Crown, to the Shortest…the last leg of the Triple Crown to the First…and the races will have to have canned cheering and applause since no fans are allowed do to Covid 19 safety measures.  Is this part of the “New Normal?”

Welcome to 2020 Covid Triple Crown!

The Belmont is run on the dirt track (also known as “Big Sandy”) at Belmont Park in Elmont, New York. It was first raced in 1867, making it the oldest jewel in the Triple Crown (and the fourth oldest race in North America). However, the race wasn’t run in 1911 or 1912, which is why the Kentucky Derby is still the longest continuous sporting event in the country. The Belmont was cancelled in 1911 and 1912 after New York State passed anti-gambling laws that failed to exempt horse racing. (While horse racing was suspended at Belmont Park, the Wright Brothers brought airplane races to the track for a 10-day event in October 1910. The highlight was a race to the Statue of Liberty, which drew a crowd of 150,000 to watch the start and finish.) Interesting!

Secretariat and jockey Ron Turcotte near victory during the Belmont Stakes on June 9, 1973.

(Focus On Sport/Getty Images)

1. Sir Barton was the first Triple Crown winner in 1919.

Even though he was the grandson of 1893 English Triple Crown winner Isinglass, Sir Barton was a most unlikely thoroughbred to become the first to win the Kentucky Derby, the Preakness and the Belmont. Sir Barton was entered in the 1919 Kentucky Derby to set the pace for his more famous stable mate, Billy Kelly, but he ended up winning the Run for the Roses by five lengths. Just four days later in Baltimore, Sir Barton won the Preakness. (Present-day thoroughbreds have two weeks between the two races.) On June 11, 1919, the equine set an American record in defeating two other horses in the Belmont. It wasn’t until the 1930s, however, that the sweep of the three races was widely referred to as the “Triple Crown.”

2. There have been 13 Triple Crown winners.

Thirty horses have won the first two legs of the Triple Crown, but 19 of them failed to win the Belmont. In addition to Sir Barton, the other Triple Crown winners have been Gallant Fox (1930), Omaha (1935), War Admiral (1937), Whirlaway (1941), Count Fleet (1943), Assault (1946), Citation (1948), Secretariat (1973), Seattle Slew (1977), Affirmed (1978), American Pharoah (2015) and Justify (2018).

3. The longest gap in Triple Crown winners was 35 years.

After Affirmed’s Triple Crown in 1978, the longest drought in Triple Crown history began in 1979 with Spectacular Bid‘s failed Triple Crown attempt at the Belmont Stakes, and lasted until American Pharoah won in 2015. There were plenty of near misses, however. Between 1979 and 2014 13 horses, including I’ll Have Another, won both the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness, but not the Belmont Stakes.

4. There were seven years in which it was impossible to have a Triple Crown winner.

Winning a Triple Crown is a tough enough task, but there were years when it was simply impossible. In 1890, the Belmont and the Preakness were held on the same day, while in 1917 and 1922 the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness coincided on the calendar. The Preakness was not run between 1891 and 1893, while the Belmont was cancelled in 1911 and 1912 after New York State passed anti-gambling laws that failed to exempt horse racing. (While horse racing was suspended at Belmont Park, the Wright Brothers brought airplane races to the track for a 10-day event in October 1910. The highlight was a race to the Statue of Liberty, which drew a crowd of 150,000 to watch the start and finish.)

5. No filly has ever won the Triple Crown.

The filly Ruthless won the very first Triple Crown race, the 1867 Belmont. Only two female thoroughbreds have captured the Belmont since, however. (In fact, only 22 fillies have ever competed in the event.) Three fillies have won the Kentucky Derby, and five, the most recent being Rachel Alexandra in 2009, have won the Preakness.

6. No horse was faster than Secretariat.

On June 9, 1973, Secretariat didn’t just become the first horse in 25 years to win the Triple Crown—he may also have blazed the single greatest performance in horse racing history. After winning the Kentucky Derby in a record time that still stands, “Big Red,” as he was known, set a world record for a mile-and-a-half distance on a dirt track at 2 minutes, 24 seconds. The overwhelming favorite, at 1-10 odds, crossed Belmont’s finish line an unfathomable 31 lengths in front of the field. Secretariat was such a star that he was the only non-human on ESPN’s 100 Greatest Athletes of the Twentieth Century.

7. African-American jockeys dominated the early history of the Triple Crown.

While there are few African-American jockeys in horse racing today, that was not the case in the early years of the Triple Crown races. In the inaugural Kentucky Derby in 1875, 13 of the 15 jockeys—including Oliver Lewis, who rode Aristides to victory—were black. Fifteen of the first 28 Derby-winning jockeys were African-Americans, including three-time victor Isaac Murphy. During the course of the 1890s, Willie Simms became the only black rider to win all three of the Triple Crown races.

8. The Belmont Stakes is the oldest and longest Triple Crown event.

New York banker August Belmont established the Belmont Stakes, which was first run at Jerome Park in the present-day Bronx, in 1867. The race predates the Preakness (first run in 1873) and the Kentucky Derby (first run in 1875). At a distance of a mile and a half, it is the longest of the three races.

9. On five occasions, betting on the Belmont Stakes was as easy as flipping a coin.

While a field of 12 will race in the 2012 Belmont, there were five times when the race had only two horses in the field: 1887, 1888, 1892, 1910 and 1920.

10. The Belmont Stakes favors inside-post horses and favorites.

Looking to put a sawbuck or two on the Belmont? Here’s some history. Since 1905, the most winners, 23, have come out of the No. 1 post. Street Life will have the inside post for the 2012 Belmont. Also, the race often goes to form. Of the 143 previous runnings of the Belmont, the betting favorite has won 61 times, nearly 42 percent of the races.

Racing from Home

with

Jerry Bailey and Randy Moss

Bob Baffert talks Kentucky Derby 2020 prospects 

 NBC Sports

The country’s most famous horse race is the latest sports event to be impacted by concerns about the coronavirus pandemic.

On Tuesday, Churchill Downs Incorporated CEO Bill Carstanjen announced the 2020 Kentucky Derby—which was originally scheduled for May 2—has been postponed to Sept. 5:

“Throughout the rapid development of the COVID-19 pandemic, our first priority has been how to best protect the safety and health of our guests, team members and community. As the situation evolved, we steadily made all necessary operational adjustments to provide the safest experience and environment. The most recent developments have led us to make some very difficult, but we believe, necessary decisions and our hearts are with those who have been or continue to be affected by this pandemic. 

“Our team is united in our commitment to holding the very best Kentucky Derby ever and certainly the most unique in any of our lifetimes. While we are always respectful of the time-honored traditions of the Kentucky Derby, our Company’s true legacy is one of resilience, the embracing of change and unshakeable resolve.”

The 2020 Longines Kentucky Oaks has also been pushed back until Sept. 4.

Jason Frakes of the Louisville Courier Journal reported on March 16 that Churchill Downs was “likely” going to postpone the race from May 2 to Sept. 5.

This year’s race is set to be the 146th edition of the annual event that serves as the defining competition on the sport’s calendar and sets the stage for a Triple Crown pursuit as the first of three legs alongside the Preakness Stakes and the Belmont Stakes.

It is just the latest marquee sports event to react to the coronavirus, as the NCAA men’s and women’s basketball tournaments were both canceled and the NBA, MLS and NHL seasons were all suspended, among other developments.

This decision comes after Grace Schneider of the Louisville Courier Journal reported on March 12 that Churchill Downs planned on waiting until closer to race day to choose whether it would postpone the event or hold it without fans.

The track said at the time preparations “are still moving forward. With the event still seven weeks away, a decision will be made closer to that date.”

Schneider and Alfred Miller noted the Kentucky Derby has been postponed just once in 145 years—in 1945 when the United States government suspended horse racing during World War II. That year’s race eventually happened June 9.

In terms of the actual racing, last year’s Kentucky Derby was among the most memorable in recent history.

Country House was awarded the win when Maximum Security was disqualified for blocking the paths of other horses by changing lanes without clearance.

 

 

 

Jerry’s Top 10!

 Kentucky Derby Top Ten 2020

1.Tiz the Law

2.Nadal

3.Authentic

4.Charlaton

5.Honor A.P.

6.Ete Indian

7.Sole Volante

8.Thousand Words

9.King Guiermo

10.Independence Hall