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MINUTES TO POST…PREAKNESS 2018

HOME –  LIFESTYLE  FASHIONBEAUTY FITNESS

HEALTH RECIPES   REAL GOOD NEW!

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It’s Post Time!

Join our COFFEEBREAKWITHFRIENDS

Table of Discussion with

2 time Kentucky Derby, Preakness,

and Belmont Stakes Winner 

Jerry Bailey, and me, his wife Suzee,

who will bring you up-to-date thoroughbred horseracing news

on all the big races and events throughout

THE THOROUGHBRED HORSE RACING  Season!

And don’t forget to share your favorite picks or questions

in the comment area below…

or visit Jerry or Suzee on Twitter or Facebook!

http://@jerrydbailey

or email us at:

coffeebreakwithfriendswebsite@gmail.com

Check out our Derby Styln Special Edition

Click Here

Post time: Saturday, 6:20 p.m. Eastern time, NBC

No. 1 Quip (12-1 morning-line odds)
Trainer: Rodolphe Brisset
Jockey: Florent Geroux

Quip won the Grade II Tampa Bay Derby and finished second in the Grade I Arkansas Derby, giving him enough points to get in the Kentucky Derby; however, his connections preferred to point him to the Preakness. Only four “new shooters” over the past 28 years have won the Preakness, but don’t forget about him in your exotics.

No. 2 Lone Sailor (15-1)
Trainer: Tom Amoss
Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr.

Lone Sailor was second in the Grade II Louisiana Derby and eighth in the Kentucky Derby. His running style, preferring to sit way back off the pace, might be a negative here against early speedsters and stalkers.

No. 3 Sporting Chance (30-1)
Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas
Jockey: Luis Contreras

The Hopeful winner as a 2-year-old hasn’t taken the next step as a 3-year-old after winning two of three starts as a juvenile.

No. 4 Diamond King (30-1)
Trainer: John Servis
Jockey: Javier Castellano

Diamond King won the Federico Tesio Stakes for his fourth win in six career starts. He has missed the board only once: last fall in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at Churchill Downs.

No. 5 Good Magic (3-1)
Trainer: Chad Brown
Jockey: Jose Ortiz

Last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner had a solid showing in the Kentucky Derby, finishing second, and this son of Curlin appears well suited for the 1 3/16-mile Preakness.

No. 6 Tenfold (20-1)
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Jockey: Ricardo Santana Jr.

Tenfold ran fifth in the Arkansas Derby in just his third career start. But you have to respect Asmussen, a Hall of Famer who has two Preakness wins: Curlin (2007) and Rachel Alexandra (2009).

No. 7 Justify (1-2)
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Jockey: Mike Smith

The unbeaten colt broke the “Curse of Apollo” in the Kentucky Derby, in a rainstorm, and on a sloppy track. Baffert is 4 for 4 in the Preakness with his Derby winners. Preakness favorites are 72 for 142 in the second leg of the Triple Crown. Tough to beat here.

No. 8 Bravazo (20-1)
Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas
Jockey: Luis Saez

His connections won the 2013 Preakness with Oxbow and, like him, Bravazo’s best races have come when he has stalked the early pace.

Jerry’s Top 3

1. JUSTIFY

2.GOOD MAGIC

3.BRAVAZO

 

Suzee’s Top 3

1.GOOD MAGIC 

2.JUSTIFY

3.SPORTING CHANCE

 

CONGRATULATIONS TEAM JUSTIFY!

Memory Lane! 

              

Kentucky Oaks 2018 Overview

Monomoy Girl comes into the Oaks with only one defeat in 6 career starts. She started her career as a one-run turf horse but transitioned into a front-running dirt horse even though two back she won the Rachel Alexandra from last.. which demonstrates she has extreme versatility. I do believe she may be a bit better with a target and certainly doesn’t need the whip. She also has a win over the CD main strip. Her post fourteen is not ideal but I believe that jockey Florent Geroux can use some of her speed to clear most of the field and drop in behind the three pacesetters as they run into the first turn.

Midnight Bisou lost her only two starts last year but is a perfect three for three this year including the SA Oaks in her latest race. She can sit mid-pack if the pace is moderate but she has a tremendous late kick and can close a ton of ground late if the pace gets fast and hot.

Rayya-the Dubai shipper now in the care of Bob Baffert has two wins in her five starts. She won the UAE Oaks and next out was a distant second in the  UAE Derby to Mendelssohn. She has a ton of early speed and has been in front in every race except the Derby when she sat in the pocket behind front-running Mendelssohn and even though she was beaten 18 lengths, it was a good effort and showed she can sit behind horses. She was second twice( Guineaus trial and 1000 Guineaus) to her stablemate Winter Lightning but was forced to run fast early and was caught late. In the Okas, she made an easier lead and had plenty when she turned for home. If allowed an easy lead she will be tough to beat but I suspect that Monomoy Girl will right on her tail.

My Miss Lilly..couldn’t close enough ground sprinting at GP in the Forward Gal, so she went back to Aqueduct to run in the one-turn mile Busher Stakes. She hit the gate at the start then had a ton of traffic in the stretch but still managed a good third and was arguably the best that day. One she stretched out in the Gazelle she won although it was close and only carried 114 lbs.  She will definitely like the extra 1/16 of a mile in the Oaks.

 

Chocolate Martini.. claimed in Feb for $30,000 and won her next two starts including the FG Oaks in her most recent race form well back. There is a ton of speed in this year’s race so she would have a punchers chance.

Coach Rocks.  Broke her maiden at GP in mid-Feb leading gate to wire on easy fractions then came back in the GP Oaks to win impressively from well back of the pace even with a bit of trouble on the far turn. Big jump up and she will need to have another big improvement to win the KY Oaks.

Sassy Sienna..has won two of her four starts this year and most recently the winner of the Fantasy over Wonder Gadot and the speedy run off Amy’s Challenge. SS wasn’t overly impressive in the win but her jockey Gary Stevens was able to position her much closer to a fast pace with still enough left to get the win. Hasn’t shown she good enough to win the KY Oaks.

Wonder Gadot, is usually close but rarely a winner. She win the Demoisel last fall at Aqueduct but has since finished less than a length behind the likes of Sassy Sienna, Chocolate Matini, Eskimo Kisses and third by 3 to Monomoy Girl in the Rachel Alexandra at the FG. Her stalking style gives her options in KY.

Eskimo Kisses is interesting. She has an allowance race three back in the slop that is good enough to compete with these fillies but in general, she’s not good enough.. unless it rains

Take Charge Paulafour wins in stakes when sprinting but finished second both times going long in the Davona Dale and GP Oaks. She’s talented but the added distance of the KY Oaks is not her friend.

 

Cosmic Burst  has a win over the track last fall and won the Honey Bee stakes at Oaklawn this spring but she hasn’t run nearly fast enough to beat many of these in here.

Classy Act  trained by Bret Calhoun has been a real speedster since adding blinkers four races back. She did win her first two with them but as the races lengthened her speed with blinkers was less effective.

Patrona Margarita is also trained by Bret Calhoun and won the Pocahontas here last fall so she likes the track but was beaten  13 lengths by Monomoy Girl in the Ashland.

Note.. Bret Calhoun lost Chocolate Martini for 30 K

 

 

Jerry’s Top 4!

1.Monomoy Girl

2.Midnight Bisou

3.Eskimo Kisses

4.My Miss Lilly

 

Suzee’s Top 3

1.Monomoy Girl –A friend of ours horse…:)

2. Classy Act – Perfect for Ladies Day..:)

3.Take Charge Paula…Need I say more..LOL

4.Midnight Bisou-The Favorite…a Beauty!

Monomoy Girl drew Post 14 and opens as the 2-1 morning-line favorite for the 2018 Kentucky Oaks.

Midnight Bisou is the second choice at 5-2 in the No. 10 spot.

Trainer Brad Cox will have the field bookended with Monomoy Girl, with Florent Geroux aboard, on the outside and Sassy Sienna, at 15-1 with Gary Stevens aboard, on the rail in the No. 1 position.

“This is a good enough group where I think the best horse will probably be able to win from anywhere,” said Twinspires.com’s Ed Derosa during the Kentucky Oaks draw show. “For me, I’m not looking for this draw as something that’s going to move up a horse or move down a horse on my radar.”

The 144th running of the Kentucky Oaks will be held at 6:12 p.m. Friday at Churchill Downs. The 1 1/8, Grade 1 stakes race has a $1 million purse.

Derby Picks coming later today!


Kentucky Derby 2018

         Kentucky Derby 2018

                             Kentucky Derby 2018 Final Picks…

 

It’s a very competitive Derby field this year and I think there is very little separation between the top five.

The likely favorite heading into Churchill Downs for the most exciting two minutes in sports will be the lightly raced but brilliant colt named Justify. Trained by four-time Derby winner Bob Baffert(who also won the triple crown with American Pharoah in 2015), Justify has three wins in as many starts and most recently winner of the Santa Anita Derby over Bolt D’Oro, would become the first horse since  Apollo in 1882 to win the Kentucky Derby without having race as a two year old. With post position number seven, and drawn outside the likely pacesetter Promises fulfilled, jockey Mike Smith should have Justify in a stalking position going into the first turn and should get the perfect trip from there.

Mendelssohn is the favorite in Europe but likely the second choice here in America based upon his brilliant 18 ½ length victory in the United Arab Emirates Derby held in Dubai back on March 31 in track record time. He like Justify will race close to the lead early and post fourteen is far enough outside to allow jockey Ryan Moore to track the front-runner with little dirt getting kicked back in his face. As long a nothing goes wrong at the break this sort of early trip should give him a chance to win if he’s good enough. The fine line that jockey Moore has to ride is that of using his colt enough to get a good position but still saving enough for the finish.

Bolt D’Oro was the odds-on favorite in last year’s Breeders Cup juvenile but finished third after a very wide trip and should have finished closer with a better trip. He has finished second in his two starts this year to really good horses. First to McKinzie in the San Felipe (even though he was awarded the victory due to interference in the stretch), and then the brilliant Justify in the recent Santa Anita Derby. His sire Medaglia D’Oro is one of the hottest in the country and that heritage will certainly help him be better at the added distance in Kentucky. With new jockey Victor Espinoza aboard, he should be six or seven lengths behind the leaders and make his move at the far turn. He has looked exceptional training this week at Churchill Downs and is a serious threat to Justify this time around.

 

Vino Russo may attract a lot of attention as well based upon his recent win in the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct race track in New York as well as his trainer Todd Pletcher and jockey John Velazquez who teamed up to win last year’s Derby with Always Dreaming. Vino Russo typically comes from mid-pack and the distance of the derby will be to his liking. This colt by Curlin was very highly thought of in Jan but was a bit disappointing in his Florida campaign. His win in the Wood Memorial while running widest of all on both turns, reinforced his connection’s earlier opinions of his talent level.

Audible is another from the Todd Pletcher barn and his win in the Florida Derby surely makes him a threat. He has great tactical speed and can adjust to whatever the pace scenario is which is a huge advantage is a twenty horse field. Watching him run through the middle of the race never leads you to believe he will win because the rider is almost always pushing for a little more run, however, when he hits the stretch he seems to find his best gear. His jockey Javier Castellano has been voted the top American jockey for four of the last five years but is winless in his eleven Derby rides. My biggest concern with this youngster is his ability to get better with the added furlong of the Kentucky Derby.

Good Magic is last year’s two-year-old champion based on his win in the Breeders Cup Juvenile and is fresh off a win in the Bluegrass Stakes at Keeneland race track based in Lexington Ky. Good Magic, like Audible, has good tactical speed and be placed wherever his jockey Jose Ortiz desires. Ortiz and trainer Chad Brown both won individual titles in 2017 as tops trainer and jockey respectively so the connections are outstanding.

Magnum Moon like Justify is also undefeated after his win in the Arkansas Derby. Since the early pace was slow, he went straight to the lead and won by four lengths however he drifted out badly in the final furlong which is some cause for concern. Since he has never been worse than 4thearly in his races, he will certainly be able to get a decent position early in the Derby.

Hofburg is another with very limited experience(only three races) but unlike Justify, he did race as a two-year-old. His second-place finish to Audible in the Florida Derby was a huge improvement in form and another giant leap forward would give him a chance at a placing.

Jerry’s  Picks!

1. Justify

2.Bolt D’Oro

3.Audible

4.Mendelssohn

Suzee’s Picks!

1.Bolt D’Oro

2.Justify

3.Mendelssohn

4.Hofburg

Remember…these picks are always subject to change…so check back often!

It’s a very competitive Derby field this year and I think there is a very little separation between the top five.

The likely favorite heading into Churchill Downs for the most exciting two minutes in sports will be the lightly raced, but brilliant colt named Justify. Trained by four-time Derby winner Bob Baffert(who also won the Triple Crown with American Pharoah in 2015), Justify has three wins in as many starts, with the most recent being his big win of the Santa Anita Derby over Bolt D’Oro.   Justify would become the first horse since  Apollo, in 1882, to win the Kentucky Derby without having raced as a two-year-old.

 

Mendelssohn is the favorite in Europe but likely the second choice here in America based upon his brilliant 18 ½ length victory in the United Arab Emirates Derby held in Dubai back on March 31 in track record time. He like Justify will race close to the lead early and post position draw will be crucial. Both of these two colts are several lengths faster than the next group which includes Vino Rosso, Audible, Magnum Moon and Bolt D’Oro.

 

Vino Russo may attract a lot of attention as well based upon his recent win in the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct race track in New York as well as his trainer Todd Pletcher and jockey John Velazquez who teamed up to win last year’s Derby with Always Dreaming. Vino Russo typically comes from mid-pack and the distance of the derby will be to his liking. This colt by Curlin was very highly thought of in January but was a bit disappointing in his Florida campaign. His win in the Wood Memorial while running widest of all on both turns, reinforced his connection’s earlier opinions of his talent level.

 

Audible is another from the Todd Pletcher barn and his win in the Florida Derby surely makes him a threat. He has great tactical speed and can adjust to whatever the pace scenario is which is a huge advantage is a twenty horse field. Watching him run through the middle of the race never leads you to believe he will win because the rider is almost always pushing for a little more run, however, when he hits the stretch he seems to find his best gear. His jockey Javier Castellano has been voted the top American jockey for four of the last five years but is winless in his eleven Derby rides. My biggest concern with this youngster is his ability to get better with the added furlong of the Kentucky Derby.

Good Magic is last year’s two-year-old champion based on his win in the Breeders Cup Juvenile and is fresh off a win in the Bluegrass Stakes at Keeneland race track based in Lexington Ky. Good Magic, like Audible, has good tactical speed and be placed wherever his jockey Jose Ortiz desires. Ortiz and trainer Chad Brown both won individual titles in 2017 as tops trainer and jockey respectively so the connections are outstanding.

Magnum Moon like Justify is also undefeated after his win in the Arkansas Derby. Since the early pace was slow, he went straight to the lead and won by four lengths however he drifted out badly in the final furlong which is some cause for concern. Since he has never been worse than 4thearly in his races, he will certainly be able to get a decent position early in the Derby.

 

Bolt D’Oro was the odds-on favorite in last year’s Breeders Cup juvenile but finished third after a very wide trip and should have finished closer with a better trip. He has finished second in his two starts this year to really good horses. First to McKinzie in the San Felipe (even though he was awarded the victory due to interference in the stretch), and then the brilliant Justify in the recent Santa Anita Derby. His sire Medaglia D’Oro is one of the hottest in the country and that heritage will certainly help him be better at the added distance in Kentucky.

Hofburg is another with very limited experience(only three races) but unlike Justify, he did race as a two-year-old. His second-place finish to Audible in the Florida Derby was a huge improvement in form and another giant leap forward would give him a chance at a placing.

Stayed tuned for more update,

Jerry


 

 

Kentucky Derby Prep Season

Analysis

Date
Race
Distance
Track
Winner
Beyer
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
Charts & Analysis
9/16/17 Iroquois 1 1/16M
Churchill Downs
The Tabulator 76 10 4 2 1  Analysis
9/30/17 FrontRunner 1 1/16M
Santa Anita
Bolt d’Oro 103 10 4 2 1   Analysis
10/7/17 Champagne 1M
Belmont
Firenze Fire 90 10 4 2 1  Analysis
10/7/17 Breeders’ Futurity 1 1/16M
Keeneland
Free Drop Billy 79 10 4 2 1  Analysis
11/4/17 BC Juvenile 1 1/16M 
Del Mar
Good Magic 100 20 8 4 2  Analysis
11/25/17 Kentucky Jockey Club 1 1/16M
Churchill Downs
Enticed 81 10 4 2 1  Analysis
12/2/17 Remsen 1 1/8M
Aqueduct
Catholic Boy 91 10 4 2 1  Analysis
12/9/17 Los Alamitos Futurity 1 1/16M
Los Alamitos
McKinzie 91 10 4 2 1  Analysis
12/17/17 Springboard Mile  1 mile
Remington Park
Greyvitos 88 10 4 2 1  Analysis
1/6/18 Sham 1M
Santa Anita
McKinzie 97 10 4 2 1  Analysis
1/13/18 Lecomte 1M 70 yds
Fair Grounds
Instilled Regard 92 10 4 2 1  Analysis
1/13/18 Jerome 1 mile
Aqueduct
Firenze Fire 85 10 4 2 1  Analysis
1/15/18 Smarty Jones 1M
Oaklawn Park
Mourinho 99 10 4 2 1  Analysis
2/3/18 Withers 1 1/8M
Aqueduct
Avery Island 87 10 4 2 1  Analysis
2/3/18 Holy Bull 1 1/16M
Gulfstream
Audible 99 10 4 2 1 Analysis
2/3/18 Robert B. Lewis 1 1/16M
Santa Anita
Lombo 86 10 4 2 1  Analysis
2/10/18 Sam F. Davis 1 1/16M
Tampa Bay Downs
Flameaway 92 10 4 2 1 Analysis
2/17/18 Risen Star 1 1/16M
Fair Grounds
Bravazo 93 50 20 10 5  Analysis
2/17/18 El Camino Real Derby 1 1/8M
Golden Gate
Paved 86 10 4 2 1  Analysis
2/19/18 Southwest 1 1/16M
Oaklawn Park
My Boy Jack 93 10 4 2 1  Analysis

Kentucky Derby Championship Series

Date
Race
Distance
Track
Winner
Beyer
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
Charts & Analysis
3/3/18 Fountain of Youth 1 1/16M
Gulfstream
Promises Fulfilled 96 50 20 10 5  Analysis
3/10/18 Gotham 1M
Aqueduct
Enticed 95 50 20 10 5  Analysis
3/10/18 Tampa Bay Derby 1 1/16M
Tampa Bay Downs
Quip 94 50 20 10 5  Analysis
3/10/18 San Felipe 1 1/16M
Santa Anita
Bolt d’Oro 101 50 20 10 5  Analysis
3/17/18 Rebel 1 1/16M
Oaklawn Park
Magnum Moon 97 50 20 10 5  Analysis
3/17/18 Jeff Ruby Steaks 1 1/8M
Turfway Park 
Blended Citizen  83 20 8 4 2  Analysis
3/24/18 Louisiana Derby 1 1/8M      Fair Grounds Noble Indy 95
04/15/2018 01:10 PM

Derby field set, with 39 points needed for a final berth

Susie Raisher
Firenze Fire slipped into the Kentucky Derby field after Runaway Ghost bowed out with an injury.

With Saturday’s final two Road to the Kentucky Derby races, plus the defection of Sunland Derby winner Runaway Ghost owing to injury, the potential Derby field is now set, with the current bottom level for making the 20-horse field a record 39 points.

The Kentucky Derby is May 5 at Churchill Downs.

Much can and likely will change over the next two-plus weeks, but at the moment Firenze Fire is 20th on the list with 39 points. Combatant, ranked 21st with 32 points, is on the bubble.

If there are no defections from the current points list, the 39 points needed to make the field would be the most required in the six years since Churchill Downs switched to a points system.

The Arkansas Derby and Lexington Stakes on Saturday both proved critical to determining the Derby field, with at least two horses securing berths.

Solomini moved into the Derby field with the 20 points he picked up for a third-place finish in the Arkansas Derby behind one-two finishers Magnum Moon and Quip, who already were safely in the Derby field owing to prior victories in the Rebel and Tampa Bay Derby, respectively. Solomini has 54 points.

At Keeneland, the 20 points earned by My Boy Jack for his victory in the Lexington Stakes vaulted him into the top 20, with 52 points.

Magnum Moon got a Beyer Speed Figure of 98, while My Boy Jack got a 90.

Magnum Moon is one of four colts trainer Todd Pletcher has in the Derby field, along with Audible, Noble Indy, and Vino Rosso. Those four, collectively, won the Arkansas Derby, Florida Derby, Louisiana Derby, and Wood Memorial, making Pletcher the first trainer to win four of the six biggest final Derby preps – along with the Santa Anita Derby and Blue Grass Stakes – in the same year with four different horses.

There are 19 horses in the top 20 who qualified through the traditional, 35-race Road to the Kentucky Derby schedule, which began last Sept. 16 with the Iroquois Stakes at Churchill and concluded with the Arkansas Derby. The 20th spot is reserved for Gronkowski, who secured his berth via the inaugural, seven-race, European Road to the Kentucky Derby schedule, which carved out a spot for the horse who topped that stand-alone points list.

A maximum of 20 horses can run in the Kentucky Derby. At entry time on May 1, however, up to four also-eligibles also can be entered, their order based on points. They can make the field, in that order, if is there is a defection from the 20-horse field by scratch time at 9 a.m. Eastern on May 4, the day before the Derby. After that, the field is set.

Immediately following the Arkansas Derby and Lexington, it appeared Firenze Fire would be the bubble horse, but he moved back into the top 20 owing to Runaway Ghost – who had 50 points – emerging from a workout on Saturday at Sunland Park with an apparent hairline fracture to his right front cannon bone.

“We can see a small line there,” said his trainer, Todd Fincher. “Right after the workout he was fine. During the cool-out period he started being off. We took X-rays and he had a little profile on the shin – a faint sign.”

Fincher said Runaway Ghost will undergo more diagnostics.  Runaway Ghost is expected to return to racing following a recovery period. Runaway Ghost was scheduled to fly to Kentucky on Tuesday.

“He’ll heal up 100 percent,” Fincher said. “We hate to miss this because everybody is so excited for the owners to live the dream, run in the Kentucky Derby. There’s nothing we can do about it.”

Runaway Ghost races for his breeder, Joe Peacock.

“He earned his way in, things didn’t work out,” Fincher said. “We know he’s good enough to compete.”

Steve Asmussen, who trains Combatant, was in no hurry on Sunday morning to make a decision on the Derby regarding Combatant, who is one defection away from making the field.

Combatant, who finished fourth in the Arkansas Derby, was scheduled to join Asmussen’s string at Churchill Downs regardless of his finish on Saturday, as Asmussen is based at Churchill Downs after the close of Oaklawn and Fair Grounds, where he has strings during the winter.

“It’s easy for me because I’m at Churchill,” Asmussen said. “No decision yet. Right now we’re just petting him.”

Asmussen recalled that last year, “Lookin At Lee was 22nd on Monday of Derby Week, and on Saturday he ran second,” a reminder of how much can change over the next two-plus weeks.

–additional reporting by Mary Rampellini